On paper, we should won this game

This topic has 14 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 2 months ago by Duhwayne.

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- 09/19/2019 at 6:52 AM #105274
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  ProudUte
  Participant
  
  You rarely can say that when playing USC.
  
  We have three of the four D linemen picked to lead the conference.
  
  We have two all conference D backs and Guidry who is our fastest back.
  
  We have an experienced senior QB.
  
  We have an AA running back.
  
  USC has better wide receivers than us, but ours are good.
  
  we have a more solid coaching staff IMO.
  
  So, yes on paper we should win this game.
  
  Go Utes
- 09/19/2019 at 7:40 AM #105280
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  Tony (admin)
  Keymaster
  
  Let’s play them on paper!
  - 09/19/2019 at 7:55 AM #105285
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    ProudUte
    Participant
    
    Good idea!
- 09/19/2019 at 8:54 AM #105291
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  Dante Guardi
  Participant
  
  we should win every game on paper
  - 09/19/2019 at 9:43 AM #105297
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    Tony (admin)
    Keymaster
    
    Let’s play every game on paper!
- 09/19/2019 at 9:15 AM #105293
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  Dwight89
  Participant
  
  There are several statistical models that say USC should win this game.
  
  Lets not forget how insanely talented USC’s roster is. If the lights go on for those guys, Utah’s going to have to play a pitch perfect game to have a chance
  - 09/19/2019 at 1:01 PM #105317
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    Sweetness
    Participant
    
    I strongly disagree that they have to play a “pitch perfect” game to have chance. A pitch-perfect game and they win going away.
    
    I’m curious which statistical models you’re referring to? At this point in the season statistical models are flawed. There simply isn’t a large enough sample size to put much meaning into analysis/projections. The models are still putting a lot of weight into preseason assumptions, recruiting rankings, etc. which are faulty by nature.
    
    FPI is notoriously terrible early in the season due to its heavy reliance on recruiting rankings. A perfect example of this is that up until last week, FPI still had UCLA as the favorite to win the Pac12 South.
    
    Personnel wise, both teams are similar to last year and we beat them by 30. We will need to play a good game, no doubt, and USC is certainly capable of coming out and just flat out winning the game, but if this game is played 10 times on a neutral field, we ought to win 7-8 times. We’re more experienced, more talented 1-22 (yes I know it’s USC…we have more NFL talent in our starting 22 than they do), and better coached.
    - 09/19/2019 at 1:14 PM #105320
      
      Dwight89
      Participant
      
      You misunderstand me. I said Utah will have to play pitch perfect if the lights go on for USC and they play up to the level of talent they have.
      
      typically I agree with you that FPI sucks, but last year’s projections and results were pretty accurate. If I remember right FPI had us winning nine games…which we did. THe other model that has us losing is sharp college football’s. You can check what they think out here:https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/team-beta-rank
      
      Listen, all I’m really saying is that USC should not be looked at as a guaranteed win. Utah can’t make too many mistakes and USC can’t play lights out in order for Utah to have a good shot.
- 09/19/2019 at 9:31 AM #105295
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  Trailgoat
  Participant
  
  Many things about the Utes favor a victory. Playing the devil for a minute on what could give USC a victory. Shooting from the couch based on history and outcomes against athletic teams. Some Captian Obvious material below.
  
  1. Coach Whit for whatever reason historcally struggles to prepare his team mentally as the hunted vs. the hunter. This team seems different though.
  
  2. WRs: Utah’s WRs are no match for USCs DBs. USC will man up and force Huntley and the WRs to make plays. WRs are a huge liability for Utah against athletic defenses (other than blocking maybe). Rest of the position groups Utah is either better or even. That is very impressive for Utah considering the talent USC recruits. I suspect Ludwig has a plan to maximize the WR talent he does have especially if the run game is working.
  
  3. Turnovers…knocking on wood table the Utes got that out of the way last game. Utes need to be at least plus 2 in turnovers to win. Not sure Utes can win staying even or minus in turnover margin. Take away the two P6s at BYU, statistically overall the game was very even.
  
  4. Posession War: USC will score points. If Utah stalls on drives and has to play catch up, USC will out score them. Utah needs to run the ball well and string long drives together.
  
  5. Weak QB pressure: If the Slovis kid has time to sit back and sling it that will be a problem. I don’t think this will happen as he has yet to see a defense even close to Utahs in his football life. If he watched what the Ute defense did to the USC QBs last year…he will have happy feet.
  
  I do think this is Utah’s year to get the away win at USC. Go Utes!
  - 09/19/2019 at 9:43 AM #105296
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    Tony (admin)
    Keymaster
    
    Regarding your 2nd point, one of their starting corners is likely out for the game.
- 09/19/2019 at 9:53 AM #105301
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  Central Coast Ute
  Participant
  
  USC also beats BYU on paper.
- 09/19/2019 at 9:57 AM #105303
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  sweetgrass
  Participant
  
  what about a thin layer of aluminum?
  
  anyone like me old enough to have wasted hours on electric football. Looking back on it, it really sucked. It was impossible to pass and getting your runner to run the right way was always a challenge.
  - 09/19/2019 at 10:49 AM #105307
    
    utefansince79
    Participant
    
    Beating your opponent on the scoreboard is what really counts.
  - 09/19/2019 at 10:58 AM #105308
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    Stone
    Participant
    
    I loved that game! Spent so many hours lining the players up and figuring out the perfect formation (usually a nice V formation was most effective).
    - 09/19/2019 at 4:03 PM #105348
      
      Duhwayne
      Participant
      
      That game me feel like a terrible coach. Would line the guys up just right and all the yelling couldn’t get them to make their assignments.
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