Possible scenarios following the outcome this Saturday

[Ghost of the HEB]

Past few weeks I’ve seen/heard various Utah fans toss around the idea that it’s better for Utah to lose to Oregon this week because that guarantees Utah a spot in the Rose Bowl. Is it possible for Utah to get to the Rose in a Pac-12 championship loss? Sure. But it’s not something to count on. It’s always better to control your destiny. The season goal is to win the conference championship. Utah has not clinched the South yet; best not to delay doing that. The Alamo or worse is still very much on the table if Utah loses to Oregon this week. Here are few possible good and bad scenarios given a Utah W or L this Saturday.
– Utah beats Oregon to clinch the South, securing top 5 win at home on primetime ABC. Utah then takes care of Colorado and finishes ranked in top 15. Oregon wins the north and sets up Pac-12 championship rematch of highly ranked teams. Utah beats Oregon again for first Pac-12 title and secures Rose Bowl bid as top 10 team.
– Oregon beats Utah at RES. Utah beats Colorado to clinch the South, but is ranked at in the 20s for Pac-12 championship. Oregon beats Utah again, but committee decides to jump Oregon with Cincinnati/Ohio State/Baylor/OK State/Michigan. Oregon goes Rose. Utah goes Alamo.
– Oregon beats Utah twice, at RES and in championship. Oregon gets playoff. Utah is unranked, so Rose elects different higher-ranked team for bid.
– Oregon beats Utah twice. Oregon goes playoff Utah gets Rose.
– Oregon beats Utah at RES. Utah beats Colorado, but Oregon loses to Oregon State. Putting Utah again in a win for Rose or lose for Alamo position.
– Oregon beats Utah at RES, while ASU beats Oregon State. Utah finds a way to lose to Colorado at home. ASU beats Arizona. Pac12 championship is Oregon vs ASU. Utah plays in no one cares bowl.
– Oregon beats Utah at RES, but Utah beats Oregon in Vegas, wrecking the conference playoff bid like Oregon did to Utah in 2019.
– Utah beats Oregon at RES, but loses to Oregon in championship game. Oregon goes Rose, Utah goes Alamo.

[UtesRule]

Just win baby! Control your own destiny is BY FAR best scenario for Utah.

[GameForAnyFuss]

The last scenario you listed is the one I’m afraid is most likely to happen.

[Utah5410]

This argument is simple. You can’t back your way into things. Take care of business sat and then again in Vegas. Unless we blow Oregon out or likewise the other way. It’s going to come down to whose the better team in vegas. RESa will give us an advantage this sat no doubt. But, dont think for a minute that vegas wont be full of ute fans. Just win and we everything else is gravy.

[CincyUte]

It’s complicated, but it sounds like our clearest path to the Rose Bowl is by beating Oregon in the Conference Championship Game (scenarios 1 and 5 and 7). 

And the next best path requires us to lose to Oregon this week (scenario 4).

Beating Oregon this week doesn’t do us any good, unless we beat them again in the Conference Championship Game.  But then again, beating them in the Conference Championship Game gets us to the Rose Bowl no matter what happens this week.

It’s complicated, but I think I get it.  Only college football is like this.

[Ghost of the HEB]

College football is dumb for making it be like this. In every other major sport, winning your conference/division is an auto-bid to the official playoffs/tournament of the sport. If this was the case for college football, we’d have no reason to worry about so many scenarios and the implications. Having a very exclusive invitational of a playoff system in which the participants are determined by the subjective feelings and observations of a committee really is ridiculous. This ain’t Olympic figure skating.

Oh, and there’s another plausible scenario I forgot to include; Oregon beats Utah, but then loses to Oregon State next week. This would eliminate any potential benefits of Utah losing this week.

[UteBacker]

I don’t think we’re a lock for the Rose if Oregon beats us twice.  Does the Rose take a 9-3 ASU (assuming they win out) or an 8-5 Utah team? 

Oregon is done for the playoffs if they lose another game.  There will be too many P5’s with one loss and then you’ll have Cincy with no losses.

Also, does the thought of having to beat Colorado to win the South make anyone else nervous?  They can come in loose as hell and all we have to do is play a little tight.  Let’s just beat Oregon so that’s not an issue, m’kay?

[SkinyUte]

Also, does the thought of having to beat Colorado to win the South make anyone else nervous?  They can come in loose as hell and all we have to do is play a little tight.

 

Very, very nervous about this possibility, tbh.

I remember what happened in the bowl game against Texas after Oregon took us to the woodshed in the last CCG. We looked like a comletely different team, in all the worst ways. It feels like the team is putting all our focus and energy into clinching this week, and I worry about a letdown if we don’t come out on top. Colorado isn’t great, but they’re not terrible either. I’m still haunted by losing to them in our first P12 year, when they came into that game winless in conference play.

Clunking the last two games and letting ASU slip into the CCG as a result would be the most disappointing outcome imaginable.

[UteBacker]

At least we’re at home for the Buffs.  Huge edge there.

[PlainsUte]

Since 2011 the Utes are 8-2 vs Colo.   The one awful 2011 loss at home (14-17) and a game in 2016 in Bouldaire (22-27) when CU was ranked #9 being the only losses.

[dystopiamembrane]

Rose Bowl, Schmose Bowl. Our goal should be 4 wins in a row, no matter where the last win occurs, in my opinion. Go, Utes!

62-20

Inside the locker room post game! #UtahManAmI #UTAHvsUO pic.twitter.com/AeQlsyqsAF

— Utah Football (@Utah_Football) September 27, 2015

[dystopiamembrane]

Oh, and, F**k the Ducks.

[Author]

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