Predict The Score Game – Averages Added

This topic has 11 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 7 months ago by KJU.

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- 08/06/2017 at 1:10 PM #36426
  4
  
  Tony (admin)
  Keymaster
  
  If you look at the Predict the Score contest I’ve added the average of all the predictions. A couple have suggested this so I thought what the hell else am I going to do on a Sunday morning. As smart as most Ute fans are here it will be interesting to see how close they are. The numbers can be skewed by people being silly though. I don’t think Utah will beat ND 100-0. So if you see someone posting outlandish predictions, give them some crap and tell them to post a serious prediction!
  
  Cheers and GO UTES
- 08/06/2017 at 3:24 PM #36429
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  Coreyc04
  Participant
  
  Damn it. Apparently you want me to move my prediction to 98-0.
  - 08/06/2017 at 4:00 PM #36431
    
    Tony (admin)
    Keymaster
    
    You’re not the only one: https://www.utehub.com/predict/?task=user_picks&round_id=10&user_id=1356
  - 08/06/2017 at 4:11 PM #36435
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    Tony (admin)
    Keymaster
    
    Interestingly @Coreyc04 you moving your prediction from 100-0 to 45-3 only moved the average by about 1 decimal point. But if the planis to use all the smart Utah picks to bet against the spread in Vegas, I need it accurate. Hehe.
- 08/06/2017 at 3:57 PM #36430
  
  Mr Chainsaw
  Participant
  
  Obligatory stats comment. The median would be a better measure for this because it would throw out the ridiculous predictions.
  - 08/06/2017 at 4:01 PM #36433
    
    Tony (admin)
    Keymaster
    
    Yeah I looked at doing the median and I might do that.
  - 08/06/2017 at 6:46 PM #36437
    
    Tony (admin)
    Keymaster
    
    🙂 Ok I’ve done the median. Both numbers seem high to me (currently 45 24 Utah). I wonder if I can spit out the numbers for one of them and check them somehow.
    - 08/06/2017 at 7:17 PM #36440
      
      Tony (admin)
      Keymaster
      
      Ok I found a median calculator. My first function to calculate it was bad. Got it now. Current 41-10.
      - 08/06/2017 at 11:40 PM #36458
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        Mr Chainsaw
        Participant
        
        Nice! 41-10 seems very reasonable. It’ll be interesting to see how good the crowd-sourced numbers are at predicting the score vs any single user
- 08/07/2017 at 9:54 AM #36466
  
  Tony (admin)
  Keymaster
  
  It’ll be interesting to see how good the crowd-sourced numbers are at predicting the score vs any single user
  
  Yes. I suppose now we could go back and look at last year’s predictions and see how good they are too. If it is nailed, some trips to wendover/vegas could be in order!
  - 08/07/2017 at 9:08 PM #36503
    
    FtheY
    Participant
    
    Good ole wisdom of the crowds.
- 08/08/2017 at 9:01 AM #36530
  
  KJU
  Participant
  
  My guess is that the Average (or Median) will end up over estimating the Utes margin of Victory. I know this is hard to believe and I myself don’t want to believe it but we are Fans and as such hold a smidgen of bias.
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