Question for you gambling degenerates..

This topic has 9 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 11 months ago by W16Ute.

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- 10/11/2018 at 6:12 AM #71697
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  User Suspended
  Member
  
  What are the odds Utah wins all remaining games on their schedule?
  
  Feels like it can’t be higher than 10%
- 10/11/2018 at 7:39 AM #71699
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  PlainsUte
  Participant
  
  Winning out is going to be a small percentage regardless. So, for the sake of demonstration, if the Utes had a 70% chance of winning each game, with 7 games left, the chance of winning every single one of them is 0.7^7 which is only 8.2 percent. Lets say the Utes then play in the Pac-12 Championship, they’d probably have a 40% chance of winning that. So the chance of winning the rest of the games is only 3.3%. If you want to place a bet on it, you should get something like 30-to-1 odds.
- 10/11/2018 at 7:53 AM #71701
  
  Wilson’s Mustache
  Participant
  
  Well I doubt the Utes will be favored against Oregon or Colorado.
  
  ASU, USC, Oregon, & Colorado are all going to be difficult games IMO.
  
  I think Utah drops 1-2 more games.
  - 10/11/2018 at 8:04 AM #71707
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    dystopiamembrane
    Blocked
    
    Looky here!
    - 10/11/2018 at 9:06 AM #71722
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      PlainsUte
      Participant
      
      Using those odds, I get a 13% chance of winning all 7. A few of those are generous. 90% vs BYU is not realistic given the nature of the rivalry, for example.
    - 10/11/2018 at 9:52 AM #71727
      
      Chidojuan
      Participant
      
      ESPN’s baloney FPI has us favored in all remaining games as well.
    - 10/11/2018 at 11:28 AM #71736
      
      Warrior Ute
      Participant
      
      I like the Massey information generally, with a couple of clicks you can get some good information. The transitive path feature is fun. If you go to the rating page you can get access to all the data they are pulling in to make their estimates, if you are a numbers geek it can be fun information.
      
      They also do a season simulation, using a Monte Carlo Simulation due to the multidue of factors in this kinds of estimate. They come up with a 14.111% chance of us winning out and a 1.745% chance of not making a bowl game.
      
      Massey Season Simulation
      - 10/11/2018 at 3:18 PM #71770
        
        W16Ute
        Participant
        
        Why is it more likely we win 6 games than we win 5 in this projection?… That seems odd.
- 10/11/2018 at 8:05 AM #71708
  
  Tony (admin)
  Keymaster
  
  We have 6 straight pac-12 games coming up. It’s possible to win them all, but very unlikely. It would be interesting to see what our longest Pac-12 winning streak is. I bet it is no more than 3-4.
- 10/11/2018 at 8:41 AM #71718
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  GameForAnyFuss
  Participant
  
  Wielding the statistics degree I haven’t used in years, I crunched the Massey numbers provided above. We have a 13.2% chance of winning out the season. Can’t give you the number that includes the PAC12 championship game because the opponent is unknown.
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