Realignment Predictions

[MDUte]

Since we are down to the final days of the off-season, I figured why not one more realignment thread?! Haha!

Here’s one nugget I learned that got me thinking about how everything might shake out. The B1G media contracts explicitly state the B1G’s media partners will pay pro-rata for up to four additions if one is ND.

We already know that one of these schools ND would bring with them will be Stanford. So here’s my prediction. Assuming the smoke is true and we find out this week or next that ESPN will exercise its option to not extend their agreement with the ACC in 2027…this would cause the ACC’s GoR’s to end in June of 2027 vs 2036. And it would open things up for schools to leave or restructure the ACC. The SEC has stated their priority schools in the ACC are UNC and Virginia to bring these 2 state’s flagship Universities into their footprint. The chatter also suggests the SEC is looking to expand it’s revenue growth through basketball since they already have their stronghold over football. That said, I think the SEC will also take Duke and Kansas along with UNC and UVA adding 4 premier basketball brands to the conference. I also believe ESPN will want the SEC to add FSU/Clemson since these are the most valuable brands from a TV ratings perspective. The SEC should get first dibs on these 6 schools (over the B1G) since ESPN owns both the ACC and the SEC’s media rights and can make an exit from the ACC less costly for schools if they move to the SEC (ESPN’s premier conference). This would take the SEC to 22 teams.

As a counter to the SEC, I see the B1G taking both ND and Stanford and 2 other schools to get to 22 teams as well. In this scenario, I believe Utah would be the 3rd school since Utah provides the geographic bridge to the 5 West Coast schools and because Utah has the best relationships with USC & Stanford. And the final school would either be Colorado or Miami. Colorado brings the Nebraska/Colorado rivalry to the B1G (not sure how valuable this is anymore), whereas Miami gets the B1G into Florida and the Southeast which the B1G has shown a strong appetite for. Problem with Miami is they would be on an island down South as a B1G member if the SEC took all of the above schools and I’m not sure if that makes sense. And maybe the SEC would even want Miami to keep the B1G out of their footprint. If that were to happen, I could see the SEC also taking one other ACC school (NC State, the Wolfpack backpack of UNC)? And this would get the SEC to 24. With that I could see the B1G adding both ASU and Arizona, along with Colorado to go to 24 teams as well.

There’s an awful lot of confidence, it seems, whenever Whitt has been asked to talk about what he sees happening with conference realignment in the short term. He has stated over and over that a massive change in the landscape is coming in the next 2 to 4 years…and he sees Utah being a part of it. For all of these reasons, I’m feeling optimistic and excited to see how it all plays out. But would love to hear others thoughts. Go Utes!!

[Uteanooga]

That is a nice story. Fiction at this point. Hopefully it will turn out that way.

[Kirk Herbstreet]

My predictions are similar, but different in a few ways. I feel fairly confident that the B1G is going to 24 teams. This is based on conversations with people who are clued in at the University. That means 6 more teams. Based on some information and some conjecture I feel pretty strongly about 5 of those teams being virtual locks. There is a contingency that is in play that could displace one of those 5. That being said here are the five I am pretty sure on, the three candidates for six and the one contingency that could mess everything up:

1. Notre Dame. They may not have a choice and would be a no brainer. The last whale in CFB standing. 100% chance they are in.

2. Stanford. ND rival. AMAZING academics. The AD has made some changes recently that will allow them to be more competitive in the changing landscape of college sports. Great market. 90% chance they are in.

3. Miami. Historic brand. Recent AAU admission. That was no accident. 85% chance they are in.

4. Utah. The B1G loves Utah. Don’t let any BYU or Big XII fan tell you otherwise. Utah aligned itself with Stanford for a reason. KW is confident for a reason as well. Take a look at all the construction going on up on the hill and that should tell you the rest. 85% chance they are in.

5. Arizona State. Towards the end of the PAC, ASU and Utah were joined at the hip. ASU also got AAU admission for a reason. Phoenix market is nice. 60% chance they are in.

6. Cal/Georgia Tech/Colorado. It is likely going to be Cal out of these teams for a variety of reasons, not least of which is Calimony.

The one contingency in all of this is FSU and Clemson. They are probably going to end up in the SEC, but if they don’t and go B1G ASU and Cal/GT/Colorado are out.

[MDUte]

OUTSTANDING post @Kirk Herbstreet, thanks for sharing!!! Love the insights from your contacts at the university and it all makes perfect sense!

I realize Miami seems more like a B1G school than a SEC school but I wonder if the SEC will allow the B1G into Florida to take them or not. Plus there’s the Miami/FSU rivalry that I would think ESPN would want. This is all assuming ESPN doesn’t allow FSU and/or Clemson to go to the B1G.
I totally hear you on Cal and know how much the B1G Presidents would want to bring Cal into their academic association. I’ve heard that Fox is the one who has zero interest in Cal since all they care about are TV ratings and ad revenue. So it will be interesting to see if Fox signs off on Cal or not.
IMO it’s best for Utah if the SEC/ESPN gobble up as much of the ACC as possible and not allow the B1G to take schools where there’s mutual interest. This would only help solidify Utah’s spot in the B1G. But it sure is looking awfully good right now for Utah’s future! Go Utes!!!

[D T]

You’re Famous

[Central Coast Ute]

I love zoob jealousy.

[EmersonUte]

I predict the Utes realign the zoobs’ spines on November 9th. They should stay focused on that.

[Grayshirt]

Where does Kansas stand in all this? Recent AAU status, and a massive football stadium project makes me think that, like Utah, they too are making backdoor plans with B1G.. Perhaps they may be in a better situation than Miami.

[Utah]

I think this is why you won’t see changes until 2030. There is no need for ESPN/FOX to rush anything. Why get stuck with more Vanderbilt’s and BYU’s and Cincinnati’s when you don’t have to?

FSU and Clemson can just stay in the ACC and come 2028/2029 the tv people can figure out who they really want in their conferences.

[MDUte]

Kansas is in an interesting position because there has been a bunch of smoke around the SEC being interested in adding them since the SEC is wanting to grow its MBB strength and revenues. But Kansas also has appeal to the B1G as well. Chris Hill went on record that he always felt like it was between Utah and Kansas to get the invite to join the PAC and be paired up with Colorado. So I’d imagine Kansas is on a similar level of attractiveness as Utah.

[EmersonUte]

from your keyboard to God’s ears brother

question though – why would the SEC not try and get Notre Dame?

[MDUte]

SEC would LOVE to have ND, no question. But the B1G makes too much sense. If ND is forced to finally join a conference they’ll choose the conference that has their 2 rivals in it (USC and Stanford when ND brings them with them). And ND will also be concerned about their Olympic sports and the B1G makes way more sense geographically from that perspective. The majority of B1G schools are within driving distance of South Bend. And I’m sure they’ll have some sort of pod system by the time ND joins to keep their Olympic teams playing against schools close by.

[FountainofUte]

Interesting. Like the poster above says, from your kb to God’s ears.

I feel like when the next big shakeup happens Utah is going to barely make or barely miss the P2 or whatever the condensed field is called. A close shave either way.

The big buzz as of late has been FSU/Clemson to the B12. I’m having a hard time seeing that. I think it’s saber rattling that neither P2 wants them, but I also can’t see either one letting them slip to the B12. The P2 also has little reason to let the B12 get any more powerful or legit. (Though, the only way for the B12 to join the ranks of the P2 and be a legit P3 would be to somehow woo ND first and Clem/FSU second).

If we can slide into the B1G with an ND/Stan wave, that would be the biggest thing that has happened to our school, possibly ever. Surpassing Rose Bowls.

[homer]

Ducks and Dawgs agreed to a 50% butch to escape to the B1G. I expect if Utah is invited there will be a similar deal.

[Utah]

There is a close to zero chance FSU and Clemson are leaving their conference to go to a conference with BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, Baylor, etc.

Would we go back to the MWC? Nope. And FSU and Clemson aren’t going to the Big 12.

[Central Coast Ute]

The Sabre rattling can mean anything. My guess is the B1G/SEC are acting uninterested to avoid lawsuits from the remaining ACC schools. Also, if they act uninterested, they can possibly take them for a partial share like UW, UO and BYU.

[TruckStopTerrors]

Why are we so positive Stanford is going to ride ND’s coattails into the B1G? Is it because their long rivalry? I don’t accept that as a foregone conclusion.

[Central Coast Ute]

The B1G reportedly wanted to bring Furd in with USC. USC wanted to bring in Utah with them. Fox wanted UCLA. people think Furd will go because the schools want them. And if ND forces it, they’ll go. It’s not too big of a stretch to think they’ll bring Furd in.

[TruckStopTerrors]

I still don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion. Stanford doesn’t want to pay players. They truly value the amateurism aspect of college sports.

[Central Coast Ute]

That’s not necessarily true. They’re making changes to athletics so they can stay in big time football

[AlohaUte]

It mostly logically makes sense that the B1G would want Stanford, but I agree it’s not a fore-gone conclusion. Especially because unless Stanford as a Univeristy is able to adapt to where CFB is with the transfer portal, they will be a perennial bottom dweller and never competitive again.

But if CFB moves to a player payment model where they are employees and the players sign contracts and Stanford can lock players in for 3 or 4 years with out risk of transfer, then they’ll be competitive.

But as is stands now, Stanford is not going to be competitive for a while.

[High Uintas]

Any realignment discussion has to consider Virginia and North Carolina as schools that either the SEC and Big Ten would covet. Both are AAU schools and would probably want to align themselves to the academic powerhouses of the Big Ten since it’s the university presidents and not the athletic directors who have the final say. I would put those 2 schools as (2) and (3) behind Notre Dame as B1G potentials.

[AlohaUte]

Yep, these two schools are far more in demand than FSU and Clemson. FSU and Clemson suffer by not being AAU (a reported B1G requirement) and the SEC already having a presense in Florida and South Carolina.

Where as UVA and UNC are great academic universities and in markets where the SEC and B1G do not have a presence.

[Central Coast Ute]

Except it’s not the presidents calling the shots anymore, it’s the networks. If it were up to the presidents, Stanford would be in the B1G long before UCLA, UO, or UW. Fox got what they wanted, not the presidents.

[MDUte]

This ^^ 100%!

[High Uintas]

Circling back to what I said earlier about North Carolina and Virginia. Seth Emerson of The Athletic posted an article earlier today that mentioned several scenarios.

If Clemson and Florida State win their lawsuit against the ACC and it blows up the entire conference then “… everybody in the the ACC is available … including North Carolina and Virginia. Those are the two schools the SEC and Big Ten will really fight over, especially North Carolina.”

If Clemson and Florida State win their lawsuit and it doesn’t blow up the ACC then he says, “My guess is the SEC would let Florida State and Clemson go to the Big 12, unless the Big Ten decides it wants to expand into SEC territory.”

[Uteanooga]

Interesting. It just does not seem plausible that Clemson and Florida St. would start this fight without a behind-the-scene landing spot in the B2. If it is likely that they would fight their way out of the ACC to have the B12 as their only option- what would be the point?

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