Rebuild

[Jay]

There’s been a lot of hype and question for next year, with having to replace a lot of starters and playmakers, and optimism for the young talent. Next year we’ll most likely lose 3-5 games, with a lot of players inexperienced will cause mistakes, but will get better as the season goes on. Next year is more of a set up for 2021 season, as most starters next year will be underclassman, and next year is essentially a year to give guys experience. I see 21 as the year to be hopeful for another shot at a run for the pac 12 and possibly the playoffs or at least a ny6 game.

[EmersonUte]

Jay – I’m with you.  It feels like next year for football will feel a bit like this year in basketball.   Easy to enjoy the wins as you get them when you seem young.  We probably lose some close ones.

With that said- with the O-Line maturing, if we can get decent quarterback play we could be good on offense.  And when is the last time we saw a Utah defense be bad?  Or even mediocre?  I know we replace a ton of guys, but I feel like our baseline on D has to remain pretty good.  

We get USC and Washington at home, miss Oregon.  ASU and USC both play Oregon on the road.  With a little luck we could go 9-3 / 6-3 in conference and still win the south with tiebreakers.  That would feel like a very successful season with what we have next year.  Would need to pick up at least one of the Cal and ASU road games.  Probably ASU to have the tiebreaker.

But 8-4, 7-5 probably more likely.  

[Utah]

I agree about the offense. We can maintain our production offensively. We return our OL, our TE, our WR’s and our RB’s have experience. The only true replacement with no experience is QB. And Huntley’s production is replaceable. I expect our offense to score 33-35 points per game next year. 

Our defense has traditionally held teams to 22-25 points per game in the past. Last year was special and next year we return to “normal”. 

That means if we put up 33 and hold teams to 25 that is a TD point margin. That points to a 9 win season. We will beat BYU, Montana State, Wyoming, Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon State. That is 7 wins. 

50/50 games: Colorado, ASU, WSU. 

Probable losses: USC, UW. 

I think we are a 9 win team unless the QB position just craps the bed. 

[FtheY]

I like your data points and game breakdown, Utah. What gives you confidence that we will return to normal defensive averages? I’m worried we will slip past our norms to 28-30 points per game.  

I know we have the best athletes we’ve we’ve ever had on defense, but our rotations weren’t terribly deep this year. I see too much of a gap in experience and playing time. 

Lloyd and Burgess were surprises this year and stepped up in a big way (especially Lloyd as a Sophomore). We got lucky with those two spots, I just don’t see us being able to parlay 6+ Lloyd’s at some of the toughest positions in our defensive scheme – two safeties, two corners, one linebacker, and nickel. Dline has proven they can reload, and while I’m not super excited there either, they get a pass based on history. 

Say we average 30 on offense while giving up 28 on D, with your game breakout above (I have similar thoughts). I then foresee UCLA and Cal becoming 50/50 games, which increases our risk of falling short of 9-3. 

UW went through this exact same rebuild this season, with superior athletes, better recruiting and one of the elite coaches in the business and still came out only 7-5. 

I was 8-4 but I think I’m going to revise to 7-5. And I hate that I’m at 7-5. Talk me out of it! 

[cj13]

This is why I expect Cam Rising to be the starter. It will be the exact same situation as Tyler Huntley and Troy Williams. They will give the younger guy the nod so that he can get more experience and hopefully be great when all the other pieces because Juniors/Seniors in 2-3 years. No reason to play Bentley in the down year, unless he is clearly much better.

[chinngiskhaan]

While I agree that (all things being equal) Rising should be the starter… The situations are not exactly the same at all. Troy Williams was not a successful SEC QB transferring to a Pac12 school (where, as we have seen over the past few bowl seasons, teams just aren’t nearly as good defensively). Rising also has more experience in our system than Tyler did. Those are some pretty big differences.

If they are equally capable, or even nearly so, I would hope they would have Rising start.

[Utah]

I think there is a big difference between Williams and Huntley vs Rising and Bentley. 

The biggest is that Williams had severe flaws in his game (go back and watch when he filled in for Tyler). There wasn’t a “50/50 split on talent, who do we go with” scenario. Tyler was just better. By a lot. 

This fall, you go with the better QB. If it’s a tie, you go with Bentley. Why? Experience. Utah has a TON of momentum. What is better for recruiting? For Utah go win 8 games and not win the south with Rising or Utah to win 9 games and win the south with Bentley? 

You have to get as many wins as you can. If Utah can go to the PAC-12 title game again…our recruiting would take another jump forward. 

I make Rising be significantly better than Bentley for him to win the job. 

[Yergensen]

Tie goes to the younger, more talented player. You put off Rising for another year and he’ll go into his junior year with zero experience. How is that good for 2021 when your other young players have gained experience and are ready for next step…And you’re inexperienced at your most critical position? Think 2021-2022 when looking at next year. If Bentley wins the job in 2020, I would at least expect him to be on a short leash.

[Utah]

First, you make a BIG assumption Rising is more talented. There is no proof of this. Bentley is listed in NFL mock drafts for THIS YEAR.

If Rising is better, he starts, if it’s a tie, go with Bentley. Why? Because winning gets you better recruits. Don’t worry about 2021 until Jan 2021. Why would you risk losing to a team like BYU with Rising when you know you can win? 

Same with ASU. Bentley has been there before. He’s played in front of bigger crowds than we will play against all year. Go get the wins. 

Why go with Rising and miss out on another Phillips? Because you “might” be good in two years? Nah. I’ll take the better, more experienced player today and in Jan 2021 I’ll deal with Rising, a HS QB and another transfer QB and instead of one Phillips in my new class, I’ll have two because I went to another P12 title game. 

[noneyadb]

If they’re close 2020 start Rising and prepare for 2021. Rising has already proven he can recruit players and getting him that experience is necessary for 2021.

[gUrthBrooks]

The D-Line will be upper classman with many seniors. Who will play LB next to Devin Lloyd though if Lund doesn’t make it back? Secondary will grow into something strong by season end IMO.

[Yergensen]

Are Bentley’s stats so good that it’s a BIG assumption that Rising may be more talented? Umm, no. Yes, there is historical data/stats for Bentley and none for Rising…you got me there, but are Bentley’s stats compelling enough to not look behind door number two? They’re not.

[User Suspended]

This^

There is a reason he’s in the trasfer portal 

[Yergensen]

Took another look at Bentley’s stats. Definitely not great, I’m not sure they’re good…career to date has averaged a pick per game, only 7-8 yards per completion, and a declining year over year completion % that is now down around 60%. Unless I’m mistaken his QBR at around 130 to 140 is good. Bentley looks to be a solid producer and potential experienced starter or high quality backup. However, unless Bentley is able to exponentially step up his production on his own or due to our coaching/system, we should temper our expectations.

[User Suspended]

Agree.

Bentley got pushed out at the C**ks because they have better Qb’s – simple as that. 

Utehub’rs please don’t try to make him into something more than what he is. Bentley is rolling the dice thinking he can beat out another tranfer portal QB that got beat out of a job.  Just keeping it real.

 

[gUrthBrooks]

“Temper our expectations.” What are our expectations? Mine are that assuming he wins the job, he will play Kyle’s ball control, hand the ball off, make some check down throws, make a couple chunk yard passes each game and punt the ball when needed to live or die by Utah’s defense.

[Yergensen]

Two things: 1) There are those here and in the local media that believe he was offered the starting job to come here and that by virtue of being 4• and an SEC QB that he is going to put up numbers. 2) Don’t know what you’ve been watching the last 2 years, but the “throw” game has evolved beyond game management. It’s not air raid, but it’s no longer what you describe either.

[Author]

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