Sagarin Predictor: Utah -1.5

[PlainsUte]

Predicts about a 1.5 pt advantage for Utah over WKU on neutral court.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

[gothamute]

and yet Vegas has the Hilltoppers as 1 point favorites…

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

[gothamute]

And ESPN BPI gives Western Kentucky a 62% chance of winning…

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=401022815

(Btw ESPN gave Saint Mary’s something like an 84% chance of winning, so there’s that…)

[shakeitsugaree]

[PlainsUte]

Everyone has their opinion which is why there are bettors on both sides.   I like to report here where Vegas has the line because it usually gives a relatively objective view of how people (with money) view a game; I didn’t know there was already a line on UU-WKU, thanks for that.   I think BPI and RPI are super lame, they are oversimplicifications of the complex dependencies that are in something like Sagarin ratings; its too bad that the committee uses them.  

[RedLine]

Betting lines bad predictors of the better team since they are drawn up to maximize betting revenue. 

[PlainsUte]

But to get the max net revenue you have an equal number of bettors on both sides, or an equal chance of one team+points winning vs the other.  Then, regardless of the outcome the house pays one side off with the money from the other side and takes their 10%.  You could argue their are fewer fans for a smaller school like WKU, especially in/near Vegas, but that ignores the professional gamblers who would act to make up for that (if say the sports books gave WKU more points just to draw in some bets on that side).  So the “smart money” are supposed to be the equalizers and thus when the line moves big its supposed to be this smart money doing their thing and by tip-off the line should be close to reality (on average over many games).   In short I agree the early line could be misleading – set to draw bets on one side or the other – but by tip-off the line should be pretty good.

[RedLine]

Really good summary.  Agree with that. 

[Longview]

ESPN BPI isn’t worth Chris Berman’s man purse.  They don’t seem to ever update it – locking in teams based on preseason predictions.  ESPN is misnamed.

[THEeyepatch]

If I remember correctly, ESPN gave the Runnin’ Utes a 7.4% chance of beating Saint Mary’s so… [explicit] ESPN!

[gothamute]

thumbs-downed my own post. no respect!

[dystopiamembrane]

F**k ’em all.

[ironman1315]

Utah.

By.

Five.

[LetItRide]

WK won @SC (who went 2-0 against us) won at Ok St. 

they are very athletic like USC.  Hence the underdog role. Surprised it wasnt more than 1. 

 

[Itacoatiara22]

Without Metu who decided not to play in the NIT and prepare for the draft. 

[NarfUte]

Also without Bennie Boatwright

[Tony (admin)]

I checked at a casino here in Nevada this morning and there was no line yet.

[Author]

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