Scholarships

[FtheY]

Leaving this up to the folks that are way better than me at math. How many scholarships do we have for the current recruiting class for 2022? 

I would assume due to these facts, that we will have a very small class. We picked up a lot of transfers last cycle, our team is very young with mostly frosh and Soph guys and Covid eligibility makes things a little different than normal. 

Should we expect to sign 10 guys? 15? We have some great momentum right now and I love that we’re getting commitments much earlier than we used to, with higher rated guys. Man it’s been fun to watch the trajectory of our program. 

[dystopiamembrane]

Addition/subtraction is all you need for this problem, son.

[FtheY]

You assume I know what addition and subtraction are 🙂

[dystopiamembrane]

Here’s an example. Suppose you are a member of the Kingston Group, and you have married three of your cousins. If you marry two more of your cousins, how many cousins have you now married?

[dystopiamembrane]

And, if two of your cousin-wives escape your compound…

[ALUF]

I guess we also got to consider non seniors leaving for the draft and transfer guys potentially leaving as well…I would also be interested to know how many guys will be on scholarship in this next recruiting class

[2008 National Champ]

Bear with me because I’m not claiming to have the definitive answer but this should be close. Using 247 Scholarship Distribution as the basis, Utah currently has 89 listed. This includes the 14 2021 commits that have enrolled and 7 of the 8 transfers leaving 5 potentials.

1) Villiami Pouha: Signed LOI, has not enrolled. I’m going to assume he is going directly on his mission and will not count until 2023, if ever.
2) Velltray Jefferson: I believe that ship has sailed and he will never come/return to SLC.
3) Michael Mokofisi: Not sure if he will be a mission or if this is grade related. Either way, I would expect him to join in a future year much like Tevita Fotu due to family legacy, even if it is as a PWO.
4) Bryson Reeves: I imagine that if he joins the team this year, it would be as a PWO. Doesn’t appear to be an LDS recruit (based on nothing other than his last name).
5) Munir McLain: I would have thought he would already be enrolled so there may be an issue in getting cleared academically. For now I’m going to include him in the total and move it to 90.

Until there is an announcement otherwise, the rule is that Utah has to be back to 85 scholarships before fall 2022 (maybe 9/1 or a certain # of days prior to the first game, i’m not really sure). There are 10 Seniors listed on the roster who, for the sake of argument, i will assume to be out of eligibility after 2021: Brewer, Howard, Niumatalolo, Olesani, McKinney, Davis, Umana, Tupai, H. Pututau, and Moala. That would bring Utah down to 80. 247 has Ritchie and S. Fotu listed who will not count for 2021 or 2022 because of missionary status so they would be at 78.

The next step is to gauge which upperclassmen might be expected to leave early for the NFL. Of the 13 listed as Juniors, let’s assume that Lloyd, Kuithe and Ford enter the draft. This means 75 on scholarship with 10 spots available (74/11 if McClain doesn’t join the team).

Finally, you need to look at who would be returning from the missions. (2018) Fanaika is on the roster, (2019) Pepa is on the roster, (2019) Vaki is not listed so will not count, (2020) Moea’i could take a 2022 spot, (2020) Tanuvasa could take a 2022 spot.

As of this minute, I would say that the baseline for the 2022 class is 10 spots available. Any transfers out, medical retirees or additional early entrants would increase.

*note: 2022 is shaping up to be small classes for the bulk of FBS. In that case, I’d rather see Utah prioritize quality over quantity. I see a lot of low to mid 3 stars committing around the country but wonder if those commitments will all be honored when it comes time to sign. If ever there was a year to lay back, keep in touch with 4 and 5 stars that appear like there might not be room for them at their committed school (or may just not be completely committed like CP) and pounce at the end, this would be it.

[FtheY]

Excellent breakdown, thank you so much for taking the time for this. It’s much more in depth than I could have figured out on my own, which is why I asked for it. Sounds like 10ish guys then and a pretty small class. 

Post of the day honors from me to you. 

[ALUF]

Yes thank you for the breakdown! Good to know who all is “committed” in terms of lds dudes out on missions or planning to go…different animal for us, usu and provo tech versus other places

[MDUte]

Excellent breakdown @2008 National Champ…thanks! I was wondering how the free Covid year was going to impact recruiting. With 10 or so scholies for ‘22, there are going to be a lot of highly talented HS kids looking for a home. I agree that we should have the ability to be highly selective.

[CB]

2008 National Champ deserves a medal for that breakdown

[2008 National Champ]

no medals. all i did was take someone else’s work and repeat it.

[Utesbyfive]

This roster compaction has really done no favors to kids trying to get in, in the next few years.

[2008 National Champ]

The NCAA is really good at creating problems they have no idea how to think their way out of. Adding the extra year of eligibility, in retrospect, was the worst decision they could have made for Football. I understand their thinking at the time but it was shortsighted and could have had a much better solution.

The free pass should only have been available to kids who chose to opt out and that should have been known before the season started so that each individual could make their choice. For those that chose to play, normal redshirt rules should have applied. This would have kept the leagues that played full seasons on schedule. The Pac and B1G would have been a little tougher but that problem was of their own making and a rule for all should not be biased. i.e., an Alabama player who was in all of their games should not count as a redshirt. By the same token, a Pac player who played in 4 games but already had burned their redshirt should not get another.

I realize that this may seem uncompassionate but it would have been far more equitable across the sport. Every kid would have had the opportunity to take the year off without burning any of their clock. For those who chose to play, there really isn’t any sane reason to treat it as if it didn’t happen. The result is now a logjam at every school in the country with 3 classes all counting as Freshman in eligibility which will be a glut on every roster for the next 4 years.

Every one of those kids is now in a situation where their immediate competition is in their same class and so there may not be a path to playing time. At the same time, the opportunities in the Portal will not be any better in the near future which is why I believe there was so much movement this year as kids sought to position themselves better. And finally, not coming up with some way to bring in normal sized classes in the next couple of years will significantly lessen the opportunities for kids currently in high school.

Once again a bureaucracy proves that every time they try to tilt the scales towards “fairness”, the law of unintended consequences bites them in the ass.

[Author]

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