Looking at it again, we probably could get into the Cotton bowl, but that isn’t even a lock….
Fiesta and Peach are playoff semifinal games
Rose is tied to PAC12 and Big 10 champions or runner ups
Sugar is tied to SEC and big 12 champions or runner ups
Orange is tied to ACC and SEC/BIG ten runner up or Notre Dame.
That basically leaves the Cotton bowl, which will automatically have the group of 5 team this year (unless the group of 5 team somehow makes the playoff). That leaves one spot. From what I can tell (rules not totally clear from my google search), the highest remaining ranked team that is not in the playoffs will get that spot. Would we be the highest ranked team not in the playoff and not in one of the other bowls? Depends on how it shakes out in the SEC (they currently have four teams ranked above us).
Lets play make believe. Ohio state, Clemson, Alabama, and LSU get into the playoffs. Then Penn state and Oregon or USC to the rose, some horrible ACC team and Florida in the Orange, and Georgia and Oklahoma are in the Sugar. Will we be higher ranked than a one loss Minnesota, Baylor, or even two loss Notre Dame or Michigan? Probably, but not sure anything is guarenteed.