So, with Scott Walker out who stands the best chance at grabbing the GOP bid?

[AZswayze]

OddsShark has Bush at the top of the heap right now (list below), but Trump is right on his heels. Ultimately I don’t think Trump has a shot in hell, and Bush’s name may be too tainted. Next down the list is Rubio who was the early favorite, but lost traction over the past couple of months. I would not be surprised to see Fiorina start to gain some ground, but I really wish Kasich had more support. Thoughts?

Hillary Clinton +150
Jeb Bush +450
Donald Trump +500
Joe Biden +800
Bernie Sanders +1000
Marco Rubio +1400
Carly Fiorina +2500
John Kasich +2500
Ben Carson +3000
Ted Cruz +4000
Chris Christie +5000
Elizabeth Warren +10000
Rand Paul +10000
Martin O’Malley +10000
Jim Webb +25000
Rick Perry +25000
Bobby Jindal +25000

[Anonymous]

I don’t know who wins but I know who loses.

America.

[AZswayze]

There isn’t a candidate on either side that inspires me. I’m glad we have a seemingly agnostic politician running, but I’m not sure America is ready for a self-proclaimed socialist in Sanders.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 2 months ago by AZswayze.
• This reply was modified 9 years, 2 months ago by AZswayze.

[GiantUte]

Good question. The candidates that appeal to the Republican base done’t have a chance in the general election. I expect the base to eventually come around to that reality and put up Bush or Rubio for the nomination. Kasich seems the most reasonable, but I’m not sure how much traction he is getting. Maybe things will change? Who knows. Still a long way to go.

I wonder how the odds are calculated for those that haven’t even declared yet. For example, would Biden have better odds if he had already declared? Or is it just assumed that he is in the race? I would certainly expect him to have better odds than Trump.

[AZswayze]

Completely agree about Kasich, and while I think Bush is probably the next best best I think his name ultimately does him in. Rubio is probably the guy, but Republicans seem to be warming up to the idea of a female Chief, even with all the negative press she has received on her track record as a CEO. While I think Trump is a complete buffoon I love how he has shaken up the debates. He’s exposed the process as somewhat of a sham where non-answers are the norm. It’s made for some great political theater in the most literal sense.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 2 months ago by AZswayze.
• This reply was modified 9 years, 2 months ago by AZswayze.
• This reply was modified 9 years, 2 months ago by AZswayze.

[concerned]

The answer: the same people who had the best chance before Walker dropped out. It is not as if his decision changed the calculus one iota. He already was no longer a factor.

[AZswayze]

Yeah, badly titled post. I’ve been out of the loop lately, and just found out this morning that he dropped and was trying to create a post around the odds of each candidate winning. I wasn’t really trying to infer that he was a front runner just worked it into the conversation very poorly.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 2 months ago by AZswayze.

[Red Dawn]

I’m voting for Turd Sandwich!

[AZswayze]

Only a dolt would choose turd sandwich. I’m all about the Giant Douche.

[Puget Ute]

Double post. Stupid iPad.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 2 months ago by Puget Ute.

[Puget Ute]

One fascinating thing is that Scott Walker was supported very strongly by the Koch Brothers. And he was the Heir Apparent, the sure-fire winner, until TheDonald jumped into the race.

I don’t know what changed the field. At one time he was polling first in Iowa. When he dropped out he was less than half of one percent.

One interesting theory is that Donald Trump supporters are made from roughly the same group of people as Rush Limbaugh listens, so perhaps he still wields a lot of power. Maybe even more than the Kochs.

[Author]

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