I would obviously much rather get there by winning out, but the scenario where Utah loses this weekend and still gets in by this scenario is very plausible: beat Colorado, UCLA beats USC, and any 1 of these happen: a) OSU beats UO, b) UW wins out, or c) Cal beats UCLA
UW has a very good chance to win out, and Oregon State has an ok chance to beat Oregon. The biggest hurdle is the coin flip game of UCLA over USC