Star rating system is flawed

[ProudUte]

Did you know that only one 5-star high school QB ever led his team to a Superbowl championship? One would probably guess Payton Manning, John Elway, etc. But, it is Stafford.

I believe that the star rating system is flawed, especially when it comes to QBs. BYU signed two different 5-star QBs that never played in the NFL. They signed a mid 3-star guys who was picked second in the NFL draft. Utah has signed many 4-star QBs over the last decade who have flopped in college. I have no idea how they rate these kids, but the star ranking does not necessarily mean the kid will excel in college.

Two of the best players in Uta football history were 2 or 3-star guys, Lloyd and Weddle. At cornerback, we signed two high 4-star guys, JJ and Phillips, who did prove to be great college players.

Sometimes, kids need to still develop physically and mentally. When they do they can go from a 2-star recruit to an All American. Whitt has been great at taking an all-around athlete like Lloyd or Weddle and helping them develop into All Americans. Kuithe and Kincaid are also examples of kids who did not have high star ratings.

All of that being said, if you are Georgia and are made up of 15-20 5-star kids – enough will deliver to make you one of the best teams in the nation. Utah will likely sign few if any 5-star kids, so we will have to develop kids who are athletic and hungry to become great players.

[2008 National Champ]

Is it time for the annual “star ratings” don’t matter conversation already?

In the aggregate, the star ratings work. On an individual basis, there are variances so it’s easy to cherry pick a Devin Lloyd or a Jake Heaps and say that ratings don’t matter. However, those are the exceptions that prove the rule which is that rating the DRAFTABILITY of 15-17 year-olds is an inexact science, but it is the best we’ve got.
Moving the goal posts to somehow mean that a 5 star QB coming out of high school will eventually be a super bowl winning QB is an attempt to quantify something that the rating sites could never get right so they don’t even try.

There are mountains of data only a simple google search away that shows the percentage of kids which get drafted every year and their HS rating. 5 stars get drafted at a higher % than 4 stars which is higher than 3 stars.,,

[ProudUte]

I don’t really disagree with your post. I never said that the ratings are meaningless or that they do not matter. I pointed out that Georgia is on top because they have double-digit 5-star guys. I used the Superbowl as a true example, that honestly surprised me when I heard it. I thinkthe ratings are generally good for many positions, but it seems often flawed for QB. Jake heaps was a 5-star QB who did virtually nothing in college. I think he reached his peak in high school.

Yes, 4 and 5 star guys get drafted at a much higher rate than 2 or 3 star guys. I do not argue that. However, I wonder still about QB ratings. Most every 4-star QB we have recruited in recent years has flopped. I think Wilson will be an exception to that rule.

Utah’s best QB, Alex Smith was not close to a 4-star recruit, but many of our 4-star QB recruits have little to no success.

In the end – YES, star ratings matter. I did not say they did not. I would be very pleased if Utah was made up of all 4 and 5-star guys. 🙂

[Utah]

There’s a reason why the top 3 is usually Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia.

And there is a reason why they go after 4 and 5 star guys and not 3 star guys.

Stars matter. A 5 star has an exponentially better shot at the NFL than a 3 star kid.

[Distantute]

Take a look at the nfl draft. It proves the star system is very accurate.

[Central Coast Ute]

I know most points have already been made, but I’d like to throw my two cents in. Stars matter. If you give Whitt truth serum, I can guarantee you he would say he would fill his roster up with 5 star guys if he could.
The star system isn’t necessarily a prediction on whether they’ll get drafted but on their impact on their college team. A 5 star guy is rated 5 stars because the raters think he will be ready to play D1 ball right away. 4 star is pretty close to that, especially high 4 stars, but they need a little bit of work. A high 3 star is predicted to be a good player but could take a year or two to develop.

[GameForAnyFuss]

Yep. If stars didn’t matter, Nick Saban would just pull random kids from the student body and win with them instead of spending millions and traveling 200 days a year going after 5 star recruits.

In Utah’s case, I’m reminded of an old saying: “Players win games, coaches lose games, referees ruin games.” I think that’s what Whit has done exceptionally well. He recruits enough talent to win games, and he coaches in a manner that ensures he doesn’t take wins away.

[krindor]

To be fair, a big part of this is because Peyton Manning was before the Internet recruiting rating era. It’s not that he wasn’t rated highly, there’s just no consensus record of it because he was from a different era in HS -> College recruiting.

Same story with the other guys you mentioned – Always for example. There’s only a few QBs who have been rated at all as recruits that have won a SuperBowl…not just those who’ve been rated 5 stars

[Jim Vanderhoof]

I think the rating system has improved over the years. More qualified eyeballs are watching and rating has become a big business. As Central Ute pointed out the rating system looks at size speed and talent to compete immediately.

Some kids develop physically faster than others. A three star may be under sized and need to get bigger and stronger to compete while the 4 and 5 star might be already there.

There is a lot more 3 star athletes out there than 4 and 5’s. Whitt has been as good as any coach at taking 3* athletes and finding a position they fit and developing them through weight training and coaching.

[Jim Vanderhoof]

I think the rating system has improved over the years. Lots more qualified eyeballs watching as rating has become a big business. As Central Ute pointed out 4 and 5* are ready to compete sooner because of their size speed and abilities.

Lots of talented 3* that are late bloomers in the growth cycle. They just need more time to grow and get stronger. Whitt has been successful taking under sized athletes and getting them bigger and stronger through diet and weight training.

[Charlie]

Keep in mind, the star system is a rank at the present point in time. If you have been around young athletes much you see, from year to year, some take great leaps and other maybe fade a bit, all while trying to improve. I am not surprised that continues into college. I have no doubt that at that point in time 4s are better than 3s, but there are 3s about to take a leap. Projecting out every year leaves more room for change. To really know the future you would need to see a lady that can read cards. I really don’t know why changes over a few years is a surprise.

[Central Coast Ute]

Exactly. Ute fans like to point to Devin Lloyd, but he wasn’t ready from day one. Once he was developed, he absolutely could hang with anyone. His star ranking was correct.

[2008 National Champ]

Devin Lloyd also played WR/S in high school where he was too slow for the position(s) to be considered a future draft pick. No one reviewing tape in their right mind looks at his HUDL and projects him to put on 30 pounds and go in the first round at LB. Just like anyone reviewing Dalton Kincaid in his one year of HS ball wouldn’t decide that he’s a future first rounder.

[mfaulk80]

QBs are the hardest position for highschool ratings to get right. Most ratings are based on physical attributes since those attributes alone can get you by at the high school level. At the college and pro level, however, QBs need to rely on their cerebral and decision making skills a lot more. Other positions are more predictable because they’re honestly less cerebral.

[Jim Vanderhoof]

The players are so much better coming in to college. The high school programs have improved and run more complicated offenses and defenses. It helps prep them for college level.

Whitts culture is based on buying in to the work ethic of the team regardless of how many stars you have. Having 3 star players that want to prove they belong helps push the 4-5*. I like our mix and the athletes we are getting are higher in talent and character.

[Author]

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