Stats Question for all you Stat geeks

This topic has 10 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 5 years ago by ironman1315.

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- 10/23/2019 at 8:02 AM #109842
  
  Gary Sapp
  Participant
  
  Before the start of the season there were a number of articles showing our probablity of winning each game on the schedule.
  
  I would be greatly interested in seeing how the projections against the rest of our schedule looks now. So do any of you remember where those projections would be now?
- 10/23/2019 at 8:04 AM #109843
  
  TheJuggernaut
  Participant
  
  http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/254/utah-utes
- 10/23/2019 at 8:13 AM #109844
  
  Tony (admin)
  Keymaster
  
  Type sagarin in the search box: https://www.utehub.com/forums/search/sagarin/
- 10/23/2019 at 8:46 AM #109848
  4
  
  salty-ute
  Participant
  
  I like the graphic charts based on S&P+ that u/ExternalTangents does on reddit
  
  Here is the Pac-12
  
  You can find the rest of the conferences here
- 10/23/2019 at 9:00 AM #109850
  
  GameForAnyFuss
  Participant
  
  For those wondering, if we go by the ESPN FPI, Utah now has almost exactly a 25% chance of going undefeated the rest of the way. Prior to ASU, it was 13%.
  - 10/23/2019 at 9:41 AM #109852
    
    UM4G
    Participant
    
    Wonder what it’ll jump up to if we manage to beat UW
    - 10/23/2019 at 9:54 AM #109853
      
      GameForAnyFuss
      Participant
      
      Assuming we beat Cal prior to beating UW, and also assuming the FPIs for the remaining games don’t change from where they are today (an incorrect assumption, but I doubt they’ll move too much)…
      
      68%
      - 10/23/2019 at 10:51 AM #109863
        1
        
        KiYi-Ute
        Participant
        
        Almost nice.
      - 10/23/2019 at 10:54 AM #109864
        1
        
        salty-ute
        Participant
        
        Using CURRENT S&P+ ratings, if we beat Cal & UW, our odds are as follows.
        
        11 wins: 72.33%
        10 wins: 25.03%
        9 wins: 2.56%
        8 wins: 0.08%
      - 10/23/2019 at 6:13 PM #109902
        
        ironman1315
        Participant
        
        Unless of course, Utah boat races both teams. That’d be fun.
- 10/23/2019 at 6:09 PM #109901
  
  Warrior Ute
  Participant
  
  Massey ratings also offers some individual game projections. If you click on more on the top to can get simulate season and it gives you stats on likelihood of total wins remaining, using their predictor.
  
  Massey ratings for Utah
  
  Currently a 48.2% chance of losing one game and a 29.4% chance of winning out.
  
  Season simulation
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