Team Talent Composite

[2008 National Champ]

247 posted their 2024 Team Talent Composite. I’ve been tracking it since 2015 and if I would have been betting the money line just based on the talent rankings, I would have been way up. For instance, if someone has just taken the more talented team for home games in P5 v P5 matchups, they would have won 70% of their wagers regardless of the teams involved.

Just using the talent rankings x the historical win % based on home/road & more/less talented, this would be the order of finish for the Big-12 in 2024:

1. Arizona State
2. Colorado
3. Texas Christian
4. Texas Tech
5. Central Florida
6. Baylor
7. Kansas
8. Utah
9. Arizona
10. West Virginia
11. Cincinatti
12. Oklahoma State
13. Kansas State
14. Houston
15. Iowa State
16. parochial school

I feel like there has to be a flaw in how transfers are rated since ASU and Colorado are the top rated teams with what seems like complete roster turnover.

[cj13]

What’s crazy is USU has a 20% chance to beat Utah according to ESPN…

[Tony (admin)]

Does that mean I can lay a pile of cash on the money line at 2 to 8 odds? 

[22Ute22]

One thing I’ve wondered about FPI/SP+ or any other statistical modeling of CFB is how they account for Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe coming back. I don’t think they count as “returning production” since they didn’t play last season. I’m also a bit skeptical about PFF grading. They rated DJU 17th and Cam at 19, which is obviously a laughable ranking and no CFB fan in the country would pick DJU over Cam.

[Charlie]

Have not looked at this before but I see problems. As an example, Singer has his HS rating of .85 and we know he is not comparable to a freshman rated .85. We have seen players like Ellis last year or Lloyd before, blow up after coming to Utah. Imagine how Lloyd is rated his last year since players not in the portal have their original rating. Going the other way you see players in the portal that have a current rating way under the original HS rating. This looks like someone trying to do something with very dated data that is quite a stretch. Then, of course, there is what coaches do with talent – as an example, what Utah does compared to what Colorado does.

I think this composite notes the ability to recruit related to the then perceived talent at the time of recruitment. Actual talent varies substantially particularly after a year or two.

[22Ute22]

Transfer rankings are not counted towards the talent composite. That’s why Huard is listed as a 5 star for Utah on their talent composite, but as an individual transfer ranking, is a 3 star.

The reason why is apparently because if they use a players updated transfer rating, they would have to update the ranking of every player for a fair assessment… or something like that. For example, O’Toole was a 3 star TE coming out of HS. How do you accurately rate him? He switched to DE in 2022. Do you use his footage from 2022 and 2023? 2023 he wasn’t fully healthy and 2022 was his first season playing DE, and he has obviously put on weight and improved his technique and strength. It would just be impractical and difficult to assess. Plus, I think it might balance out in the end anyway. Let’s say you have a 5 star who was a bust and who should not be listed as a 5 star, but you can also have a low 3 star that is projected to be a 1st or 2nd round pick, and whose updated ranking should be a high 4 star player. Those two would sorta offset each other.

You also have to take into account the effect of coaching. I know Josh Pate does this for his power rating, in which he grades your HC, DC, OC, and assistant staff and then uses that in a team’s rating.

[Redblood]

So the 5 favorites are: Kansas (7), Utah (8), AZ (9), OSU (12), and KSU (13)? Either this system is way off, or the general perception of them is way off.

[22Ute22]

It’s only off for the Big 12 though. Ohio state, Oregon, PSU, and Michigan are the 4 favorites for the B1G and they are 4/5 most talented teams in the conference. Iowa and USC are the next two, and USC has a lot of talent.

In the ACC, the 3 favorites (prior to yesterday) were FSU, Clemson, and Miami, which are the 3 most talented teams.

In the SEC, well, apparently almost every team is talented in the SEC. But Alabama, UGA, and Texas are the 3 most talented teams and are the 3 favorites.

Plus, of all the national champions since the BCS era, I’m pretty sure Michigan last year was the only team to not be in the top 10 most talented teams of the season. They were 14th.

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