No more than 10% IMO depending on who is heaving it. All we had to do was just get in their way and make them eat up the 2.2 seconds. No need to attempt to block a shot. Idiotic.
If Taylor would have just stopped, and not jumped, the chances he makes it are next to 0, as he would have tried to draw contact that wasnt there to be drawn. Even if Taylor stays away altogether and he gets a perfect look, id say 1/10 in that situation.
Taylor did not even need to shadow the OUS player. He did not slow down the OSU player who barely made it to half court in hte remaining time. Probably best to have just waited for the OSU near mid court. Sort of a prevent defense. Last thing you wanted there was a long pass, catch and shoot. The unimaginable thing you did not want to happen was a foul on the shooter. If Taylor did not leave his feet, there was no foul.
So was Taylor’s last second foul Utah Basketball’s equivalent of the Kaelin Clay drop/fumble for a 6?
Clay’s was a big mistake but it is not known if that would have cost us the game or not. Even if we score there it doesn’t mean Oregon doesn’t win. Oregon was THAT good that year.
If Taylor doesn’t foul and the guy heaves a half court shot, I’d say it’s at the most a 10% chance we lose.