The Runnin’ Utes have certainly exceeded my expectations this season

[AlohaUte]

Is it great? No. But they play hard and seem well coached (aside from free throws – though they were much better tonight). I expected them to be a bottom dweller in conference. To be at nearly .500 and middle of the pack in conference is encouraging.

[cj13]

What will it take to the make the tournament. If we win out with a deep tourney run are we in?

[NarfUte]

Winning out puts us in, that would be 20-11 needing wins over @UCF @Arizona & @byu.. for a team that is 1-8 on the road that would take a miracle. We really needed to split the wvu/ cinci trip and not lose to @OSU.

3-2 or 4-1 with a deep conference tourney run puts Utah on the bubble. Big 12 will get 7-8 teams I think

[Holladay Ute]

Spot on. We really needed a couple more of those road games against beatable opponents. And that’s really the difference between us and TDS.

Even in the unlikely scenario we finish 3-2 AND make it to the quarterfinals of the B12 tournament, I think we’d be on the bubble but I don’t think we’d make it in. We’d be 19-14 at that point w/ a weak non-conference showing and we wouldn’t be considered a hot team at the end of the season either. The B12 got 8 teams in last year and then underperformed (pretty meaningfully). Year before that, they had 7 teams in and also underperformed. And I don’t know if this is a valid statement, but it doesn’t feel like the B12 is as good of a conference this year as it’s been in recent years. I think Utah needs to make it to the semifinals of the B12 tournament to earn a spot. And this won’t happen.

Then again, I also thought we’d get blown out by Kansas. Maybe we’re hitting our stride at the right time. I still think it’s unlikely we’ll beat UCF on the road, but winning that game would be a nice step toward earning consideration as a bubble team!

[NarfUte]

The last time a big-12 team with a winning conference record was left out was 08-09 with K State at 9-7. So, if we just need a winning conference record Utah needs to go 4-1 over the next 5 to finish at 11-9 and 19-12… We’d still need to win some tourney games because 13 losses is RIGHT on the bubble for at large

[Charlie]

Remind me, didn’t the 12 send 8 teams last year? It’s very possible Utah is swirling around the cutoff currently. Win at UCF before a loss to UofA, and the rest of the games are winnable. We do need to play decent in the conference tournament to make something happen.

[Yergensen]

We would have to go on a hot streak just to swirl and you can’t go on streaks when you can’t win road games.

[Charlie]

I agree. To answer the question what does it take to make the tournament, Utah would have to go on a streak wining out with exception of Az and do something in the conference tournament. All those games are possible but we could also lose any of them. I would say we need to consistently play at our best level, something we have not been able to do for more than 2 games. On the other side, the teams outside the top 4 also have been inconsistent and can disappoint down the stretch as well. A couple will finish strong, Utah has a chance but needs to beat the odds to do so.

[TomahawkCruise]

We’d definitely be in if we won out.

Our paths to the ncaa tournament:

– Win the XII tourney
– Win out regular season
– Go 4-1 to finish regular season and 1 game in KC
– Go 3-2 (including Arizona) to finish regular season and 1 game in KC

I think any of those gets us in.

[ArcheryUte]

Coach Smith is obviously doing more with less and has this team playing competitive. My question, is Harlan helping him out the best he can? What could Smith accomplish with more support if he isn’t getting it currently?

[Hahnenwk]

Who woulda thought they would win a game on free throws?

[//r00t4Utes]

KSU was hitting the 3 ball at a high clip and hit several lucky desperation 3s.

I would dare say Utah had better looks than KSU, and KSU just hit more contested shots.

The obvious difference in the game was rebounding, Utah dominated the boards 2 games in a row.

And yeah, hitting FTs, I still think Lovering should bank his FTs.

[TomahawkCruise]

No, I don’t think Harlan is doing jack s**t to help MBB. He’s part of the problem, in my opinion.

[UteFan Vineyard]

I was worried our record would be similar to that of Colorado’s this year. We were picked last weren’t we?

Agree that we’ve definitely overachieved. The team is playing hard.

[DataUte]

Yep, picked last. Reminds me of some coach K teams picked low and end up middle of PAC12 and all one could say was, “well, I guess they exceeded expectations but still were mediocre.”

[GameForAnyFuss]

Reminds me of some coach K teams picked low and end up middle of PAC12 and all one could say was, “well, I guess they exceeded expectations but still were mediocre.”

Hmmm…almost makes one think there’s something going with the program besides coaching, considering that almost every coach we’ve had since Rick has done basically this exact same thing.

[DataUte]

hmm, maybe like AD and now NIL type stuff? hmm

[GameForAnyFuss]

My point exactly.

[utefansince79]

Really was a great weekend, knocking off Kansas (first time ever I believe) and a hot Kansas State team who had a 6 game winning streak before visiting Provo and Salt Lake.

Early in the conference schedule, starting with 3 non-competitive losses, I thought we were destined for a last place finish, but team has come around, knocked off some good opponents, and could even earn a first round bye in Kansas City. One thing that has helped is we’ve stayed healthy (unlike the last 2 years which included losing Worster down the stretch both seasons).

[WasatchRanger]

I agree – this team has been much better than expected. I can’t say I’m happy with the level Utah is currently at…..but we could be a bottom-dweller instead of mediocre.

[The Miami Ute]

Utah has most certainly exceeded my expectations but leaves me with a feeling of what could have been if they had just been mediocre in shooting FTs in a few games. With just a mediocre percentage in shooting FTs, this team would easily be 17-9 and looking like a bubble team for the Dance. As it stands right now, to even get any cursory consideration, Utah has to go 4-1 in their last five games and win at least one game, and most likely two, in the conference tournament (as an aside, Larry K won 20+ games with the Utes three different times and that was only good enough to get him to the NIT). If that doesn’t happen, we can look for Utah to once again get an invitation to the NIT and another season of Craig Smith next year. The real question is what happens next season, which would be the fifth of Smith’s six-year contract. Say Utah once again doesn’t make the Dance but, also once again, finishes in the middle of the conference pack with a winning record and qualifies for the NIT. Is that enough to get him an extension? And, if he doesn’t get the extension, does Smith hang around for a sixth season and play out his contract or jump before he’s pushed? I would imagine that it would be exceedingly difficult to get any recruits without Smith getting an extension since it would signify that the writing is on the wall, but that’s just me.

[Rick]

I think NIL and the portal make coach loyalty and impact on coaches contracts less of an issue.

[TomahawkCruise]

No doubt. I think if we could have made some more free throws that would’ve been good for 2 or 3 more wins.

[Utopia]

Well Kansas just got annihilated in Provo by 34 pts – Bill Self’s worst ever loss at Kansas. I think it’s safe to say they are not a top-25 team right now and at this rate might even end up on the bubble. Self seemed weirdly unbothered in the Utah postgame presser as if he isn’t surprised or disappointed in these mediocre/bad performances.

This conference is very top heavy with a substantial drop off after the top 4.

[TomahawkCruise]

Yeah, KU is in a slump right now but this is still a good team. Don’t forget they have five Quad 1 wins, including a win over Duke.

I think by seasons end, Kansas will still be regarded as a solid team.

[Utopia]

We’ll see – they’ll be tested playing 3 of the top 4 teams to end the regular season. Not the point in the season to be slumping and losing by 34 indcates a complete lack of effort.

[TomahawkCruise]

True. Let’s see how they do. We really need them to be good.

[Utopia]

[Utopia]

[Utopia]

[TruckStopTerrors]

Smith’s biggest issue is going to continue to be recruiting. You can be a good X’s and O’s guy, but if you can’t recruit, you’re never going to be a consistently decent to good program. More NIL support would definitely help, but we also have to accept that Smith is just not a good salesman.

[Author]

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