There is a real chance the Big 12 misses the playoff

[cj13]

If Army can upset Notre Dame this weekend and ends up winning the ACC, both ACC champ and MWC champ (Boise State) will make the playoffs. This means a Big 12 team would need to be a top 12 team to make the playoffs.

There’s a very plausible scenario with a 3 loss Big 12 champ. I don’t think this would be a top 12 team with 2 Group of 5s already in the top 12. Although not super likely, this would taint the image of the league for several years (already poor imo)

[MineralUte]

my understanding is that the BIG12 can’t miss the playoff. Doesn’t the winner of every P4 conference gets an automatic bid?

[The Miami Ute]

I don’t think that’s actually how it works. Here’s a scenario where the Big 12 stays at home while the CFP takes place:

1. BYU loses one of their final two regular season games.

2. #2 Big 12 team upsets BYU in the championship game.

3. Army wins out (including win over ND)

4. Boise State wins out.

In this scenario, it’s conceivable that Army and BSU could rank higher in the CFP than the Big 12 champs and the Big 12 would lose their auto-bid.

Remember that the fine print for inclusion into the CFP says that the five highest ranked conference champions get auto bids with the four highest ranked conference champions seeded 1-4. It doesn’t specify conferences.

[MineralUte]

Then please please please let this be the case. Would be so funny if tds is sent to a mid tier bowl game.

[The Miami Ute]

Well, I’m definitely rooting for both Army and Boise State to win out and let the chips fall where they may…

[2008 National Champ]

It would certainly prove everything Utah fan has been saying about the Big 12 as far as national relevance and perceived level of competition if their champion was ranked behind the MW AND AAC.

I will say that the TV execs who “advise” the committee would be more likely to put 2 loss Colorado in because of the eyes Deion brings than any of Iowa State, Arizona State or the parochial school.

And while we’re at it, would anyone like to take back their “Colorado will never win any games with that joke of a coach” proclamations? Because that joke just boatraced Utah’s top 5 in the country Head Coach.

[wcrunner]

My grandmother who was born and raised 10 miles from West Point will be high fiving you from heaven.

[Central Coast Ute]

MineralUte is correct. All 4 P4 Champs will be in the CFP regardless of record. Just like the old BCS where even the BIG East champ made it in.

[The Miami Ute]

Central, that’s not true. As I wrote previously, the actual wording regarding who gets into the CFP literally states that the five highest-ranked conference champions get auto bids, with the four highest-ranked conference champions seeded 1-4. It doesn’t specify who those conferences are or make any mention of “P” status.

That’s the reason why, if you go on YouTube, you’ll see a bunch of videos from Big 12 loyalists that show fear at the Big 12 getting completely cut out from the CFP. Right now, the Big 12 champ doesn’t even get a bye because BSU is ranked higher than BYU, which is the Big 12’s highest ranked team. Were BYU to lose another game, Colorado lose to Kansas, Iowa State to Utah, ASU to Arizona, and Army to remain undefeated, there wouldn’t be any Big 12 representation in this season’s CFP. Heck, it might not even take that…BYU losing another game and Colorado losing to Kansas, plus Army remaining undefeated might do it. Because there isn’t any way a two loss BYU and a three loss Colorado end up being ranked ahead of an undefeated Army that has a victory over #6 Notre Dame on its resume.

[Central Coast Ute]

Ok. I stand corrected. Thank you

[SUUte]

Could be interesting for sure…

[Utes 69]

any team out there as long as it is not TSPP!

[DriftlessClone]

Anyone paying any attention at all can see that the Big 12 is a much better conference than the AAC or MWC and that committee/ESPN simply has a bias against this conference that isn’t based on quality of play. It’s not even conspiratorial at this point. TCU straight up took it to Michigan 2 years ago and there has been 0 credit given for that.

I don’t think this is going to play out, but I’ll be absolutely rooting for Notre Dame to beat Army, and I f**king hate that I’m doing that.

This committee/ESPN is ruining the sport with their king making and bias-built narratives. It’s not the Big 12’s fault.

[2008 National Champ]

Don’t take it personally. I’ve been of the opinion for decades that until EVERY school has an equal opportunity at earning a National Championship – like how it’s done in every sport at every level except for FBS – it’s just a beauty contest and deserves no more respect. So I root for chaos, chaos and more chaos.

The Big 12 is just the latest symptom of the problem since Oklahoma & Texas no longer give the conference the cache necessary for benefit of the doubt. Because there’s not a chance in hell either of those schools get left out with 2 losses if they are still in the conference but a very real possibility (low but real) that a 2 loss Big 12 champ does in 2024.

[AlohaUte]

The writing is on the wall that the CFP doesn’t view the Big 12 or ACC any different than the MWC or AAC.

If this is the case, I’d almost rather be in the new pac 12 than in a conference with Houston and Cincinnati.

[DataUte]

I would say the committee sees the Big 12 and ACC as MWC/AAC +1 loss. In other words, an 12-1 or 11-2 champ in Big 12 and ACC is equivalent to a 13-0 or 12-1 MWC/AAC champ. The loss for MWC/AAC has to be to someone good, while there is a little more forgiveness for Big12/ACC. Look at Miami or SMU – it’s clear whoever wins the champ will be either a bye or likely 5-8 once they get there. 12-1 BYU might end up 5-8, surpassed by Boise St., but with a quality win in CCG could easily be put ahead of Boise St. 11-2 CU (or ASU) would be a different story, maybe in the 7-10 range?

[2008 National Champ]

Based on last night’s rankings, 9-1 parochial school would get the 12 seed. 5-8 is not even in the cards at this point.

[utefansince79]

If anything it should be the same as March Madness (and EVERY other sport) where all conferences get at least one representative in the playoffs.

[DataUte]

Not big enough. Do we really want:
– Army or Tulane
– Miami or SMU
– BYU or CU
– Oregon
– Jacksonville State
– ND?
– Miami (OH)
– Boise St
– Washington St?
– Texas
– Marshall
and 1 at-large (maybe two if PAC-2 doesn’t count) from above + Ohio St., Penn St., Indiana, UGA, Bama, Tenn, Ole Miss, TAMU.

You could expand to 16 and maybe, maybe this works, but the Sun Belt, CUSA, MAC are 14-16 seeds getting demolished by 1-3 in what seems like a preseason game. This is partially the argument for the P4 to become a super P2 and a different ‘division’ or entity altogether. Then the G5 could have their own tournament like FCS or DII, DIII.

That’s why 1 from the G5 is likely enough. Rare case, 2. We were there. We were BCS busters and deservedly so. But year in, year out, even that 1 G5 is usually not a contender. Some of the G5 conferences are WAY below in resources, recruiting, and there is only so much talent to go around.

[2008 National Champ]

Having all conference champions get an autobid would quickly reverse this trend of 18-20 team conferences and eventually P2. Utah could go back to a regional conference with historical references as joining with schools in West Virginia and Florida would no longer be viewed as necessary to be included.

Go to 24 teams immediately and stop with all the incrementalism to a future 90% of college football fans don’t want. 32 teams would be better since there wouldn’t be byes but 24 teams already make me a RWNJ so that’s the minimum for me to even consider the playoff worthwhile.

[UteBaron89]

Why are Boise St. and Miami not being dinged for SOS like the Big 12 teams are? Boise has played one P4 team.You all know that a one-loss Big 12 team would never be ahead of a one-loss SEC or Big10 team because of SOS. That same SOS component doesn’t apply to the Big12 compared to the MWC? Another thing. BYU drops because of all the close wins? I’ve been watching Miami do the same thing all year and knew they would eventually drop one like BYU was going to. BYU drops to 14 and Miami only drops to 8. OK. I think we’ve always known that the committee cherry picks whatever criteria they need to accomplish what they want done, whether or not they contradict themselves from one situation to another. This is no different.

[krindor]

It’s worse than that – there’s a possibility that a 2 loss Big 12 champ could get left out. Probably not BYU (currently #14) or Colorado (#16), but if Arizona St (#21) and Army (#19)both were to win out, then even an 11-2 ASU could be in danger

Consider that Army is currently ahead of ASU. And ASU would add two quality wins (#14 BYU, #16 Colorado)… but so would Army (#6 Notre Dame, #20 Tulane). So it’s hard to see how those results would bump ASU over Army.

And the top 12 teams then have 8 certainties – Oregon, Ohio St, Texas, Penn St, Indiana (even a loss to tOSU won’t drop them too far), ACC Champ, Boise St, Army. And then the last 4 spots are a competition between Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, ACC runner-up, Notre Dame, Arizona St, Texas A&M (if they beat Texas), Clemson. I DO think Arizona St would still make it in that case, but I don’t think they’d be top 5 conference champs.

That said, I can’t see Army beating Notre Dame, which makes this all a likely moot point

[TX_UTE]

My thought is that somehow CO makes the playoffs – attributing that to the “Coach Prime” effect and boasting 2 of the top 10 picks in next year’s NFL Draft…and as a side note, the hot rumor here in Big D is that Coach Prime is the next Cowboys coach and you can guess who their 1st round pick would be. Why else would McCarthy be selling one of his homes?

[The Miami Ute]

That rumor has been going around for the last couple of weeks. Biggest impediment to it is the Cowboys drafting high enough to get within sniffing distance of Shedeur Sanders. Also, if it does happen, it’ll be interesting to see how Sanders’ preachy style matches up with hardened pros.

[2008 National Champ]

his preachy style worked just fine when he was a player. Deion seems pretty good at communicating with people and getting them on his side.

Also, he’s sure recruiting like he plans on staying at Colorado. Just picked up a 4 star QB over SC and Georgia. And we know he can get talent out of the portal

[Utah]

I don’t think this is that big of a deal. If Deion leaves for another college team…say, FSU…the QB just goes with him.

If Deion goes to the NFL, I’m sure this kid has a fall back plan.

[2008 National Champ]

Just sayin’. Taggart and Christobal stopped recruiting for Oregon when they knew they had other jobs lined up. Nothing is guaranteed but getting a big time flip right before signing day doesn’t scream “I’m going to be somewhere else in a couple of weeks”

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