Trap game for USC and Vegas knows it

This topic has 9 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 2 months ago by PlainsUte.

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- 09/11/2019 at 1:30 PM #103911
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  Ute Bc
  Participant
  
  There is no other explanation why USC is only favored by 4.5 points against the TDS.
  
  This game is meaningless to USC. They have probably not even coached for this game in Provo. They are looking ahead at the Utah game. They had the emotion of hosting a ranked Stanford and now they have to travel to and play a crap team in a crap town. This is the very definition of a trap game.
- 09/11/2019 at 1:45 PM #103912
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  UteBacker
  Moderator
  
  Remember that the line isn’t what Vegas thinks will be the score difference but rather what will get the same amount of $ bets on both sides.
  
  Also, this would be a brutal game to handicap. USC has looked like two different teams in their two games and to a lesser extent, so has BYU.
  - 09/11/2019 at 2:40 PM #103920
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    UtMtBiker
    Participant
    
    BYU looked pretty terrible in both games. Just slightly less terrible agains a horrendously terrible oponent. This feels like free money to me.
- 09/11/2019 at 2:26 PM #103918
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  UtemanUtefan
  Participant
  
  My guess is; Slovis will probably throw a pick or 2 because BYU drops 7-8 most plays just like they did vs Utah. It’ll slow down USC, but they’ll ground it out much like we did and beat em by 14+. I would take USC all day.
  - 09/11/2019 at 3:14 PM #103940
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    PhiladelphiaUte
    Participant
    
    You don’t think that if ybU-p drops 7-8, USC will just run the ball….like Utah did?
    - 09/11/2019 at 4:18 PM #103961
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      UtemanUtefan
      Participant
      
      I’m saying their offensive playbook is literally built to throw more than run, so they’ll be some first half growing pains, and a lot of 2nd half running. Exactly like how our game with them went.
- 09/11/2019 at 3:14 PM #103941
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  Thlete
  Participant
  
  Maybe it’s a trap as it has all the signs but I would still put large money on USC to win by at least 2 scores.
- 09/11/2019 at 4:09 PM #103954
  
  Central Coast Ute
  Participant
  
  FPI gives USC a 65% chance to win. I think that is a better indicator than a Vegas line.
  - 09/11/2019 at 4:19 PM #103962
    
    ironman1315
    Participant
    
    FPI blows. Thrill has Sc as an 11 point favorite.
- 09/12/2019 at 7:43 AM #104011
  
  PlainsUte
  Participant
  
  I am not a betting guy, but if I were, I would put some $$ on USC this week. 4.5 seems low. Another objective system Sagarin thinks USC is 15 points better than TDS. So even with the 2.25 home field advantage the expected marginl is still better than 12 pts and you’d only be giving 4.5 pts, that’s like getting a free touchdown.
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