UNLV potential PAC 12 expansion candidate

[MDUte]

Was listening to Bill Riley’s interview of Matt Hayes this afternoon and was surprised to hear Haye’s take that if the PAC 12 expands under Kliavkoff, UNLV will definitely be 1 of the schools that gets in. I’ve always thought UNLV was too far beneath the conference’s academic standards to be considered. But I did look online to see where they are at in regard to being a tier 1 research institution and was surprised to see that they’ve reached that milestone.
Hayes’s point was that Vegas is an exploding market in terms of sports. Along with having an NFL team Vegas will soon get an NBA team and MLB team. And with sports gambling becoming mainstream and a potential revenue source that Kliavkoff will tap into along with Vegas being in the PAC’s footprint, it’s a no-brainer.
It was interesting to listen to. Not sure how much stock to put into it. If the PAC ever expanded it seems like raiding 2 or 4 of the best schools from the Big 12 makes the most sense. But that’s probably not likely to happen either.
Personally, I like the conference the way it is and don’t want to see expansion that adjusts the divisions where we aren’t playing once every year in So Cal anymore. But interested to hear what others think about potential expansion candidates.
UNLV achieves Tier 1 Research status ahead of schedule

[Central Coast Ute]

If UNLV is a tier 1 institution, they make a ton of sense. Outside of raiding the Big 12, UNLV and Co St. Would be the two to pick up if you ask me. UNLV and Utah then become traveling partners.

Like you, I’d prefer things stay the way they are. I do think at some point we will see conference expansion again however.

[Tony (admin)]

Pass.

[ProudUte]

Like most of you – I would prefer to stay at 12 teams.  If Vegas is invited and we wanted to keep an even number of teams – I would add SDSU.  My second choice would be Air Force.  I suspect that Boise would be considered, but I am not supportive of that.  They seem to be looking at big TV markets.  Then Vegas and SDSU make sense.  

[PhiladelphiaUte]

Nope.  DEFINITELY not Air Force!  For starters, they’re not a Tier-1 Research institution.  Second, the only MWC team that’s worse than AFA where it comes to chop-blocking and going for the knees, are the LowBlows themselves.

For the health of our players, NOT Air Force, and NOT New Mexico!

[astUTE]

“I suspect that Boise would be considered,”…….

 

Sorry, this will never happen! USC/UCLA are never going to allow Boise into the conference – period. They cannot compete with the balmy December/January weather in Boise, and LA has no chance when compared to the beautiful sandy Boise beaches.

They’ll never let it happen!

[AlohaUte]

Not my first choice, but I understand the logic. And of all Pacific/Mtn time zone schools, UNLV does seem to make the most sense all things considered. I don’t see Colorado State or BYU ever getting in because CU and Utah would def block it.

The other logical choice in this region is Boise State IF they were able to get their academics up.  Boise is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country, Idaho only has one FBS school so the whole state would be their’s, and they already have a better brand than UNLV.

I don’t think any Cal State school would ever be seriously considered (even though I think SDSU would be an excellent option), New Mexico is an option I suppose – similar to Boise State – but with less of a brand and a the state has a worse economy and is not growing near the rate of other western states.

[Ute Dub]

The devil inside me wants to see Wyoming get to tier 1 so TDS can get bypassed over UNLV and Wyoming. What a meltdown that would be. Cheers!

[Dwight89]

Vegas is growing like crazy, so from an economical standpoint the expansion makes a ton of sense. From a basketball standpoint it probably does too. From a football standpoint it will not help the PAC 12’s reputation at all. UNLV’s football program is pretty rough, so they would need a dramatic turnaround with the infusion of PAC 12 money. Also, is Vegas a football town? Like, would people in Vegas tune in to watch UNLV? That’s what would matter most, IMO. 

 

[Charlie]

Not my first choice. However, as it relates to travel, UNLV would be the closest school for a road trip and with lots of options to stay over. But, you can play the game, here is a bunch of schools but which one is not like the others…

If there was realignment, a clean thing for playoffs would be to reduce the P5 to P4, That would make more sense.

[AZUTE]

If it’s not Texas and Oklahoma why bother.

UNLV brings nothing to the table and teams like Colo St and Boise bring even less.

Go big or go home

[CincyUte]

Yeah, that’ll take us to the next level . . . 

[PhiladelphiaUte]

I flew out to the Utah-UWa game in Seattle back in 2017, and had a layover in Las Vegas.  The person I sat next to on the plane was an adjunct professor in UNLV’s Hotel Mgmt program.  He’d told me that UNLV is bending over backwards to elevate their status in the world of academia, and from what I’d heard they were trying to do, it reminded me of an article a few years back where Dr. Hill talked about his plan to join the Pac-10 — which he’d started in 1987.  Dr. Hill felt that Utah was a sleeping giant that — if we’d prepared “now” — we could make ourselves an attractive option for if/when the Pac-10 decides to consider expansion.  And it took us several years to get to where we needed to be, but thanks to him, when the Pac-10 decided to consider expansion, we were already ready.

I think UNLV is following that same blueprint.  And more power to them.  

That said, I want nothing to do with any form of expansion that takes us out of our SoCal recruiting hotbed.

[noneyadb]

Drop Oregon St and Wazzu and add UNLV, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska.

The conference as is couldn’t get a DirecTV deal done. Adding more small market teams doesn’t change anything. There needs to be a big shakeup for the conference to keep up/excede SEC $$$.

[Hellhound152]

While we are throwing out things that would never happen why not just shoot for the stars!  Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State…

[PhiladelphiaUte]

The Pac-12 has no provisions for dropping programs because their football team is an embarrassment.  They’d have to do something like engage in a widespread cheating, plagiarization, or faculty murder-for-hire scandal to get booted from the league.

But that said, Ore St, Wazzu, and Ariz would have been great candidates to be sent packing.

[Hellhound152]

This dropping longtime conference members stuff is big talk coming from a fan base of a team that hasn’t won the conference or played in a rose bowl ever.

[Johnny]

Uh no. I considered going to UNLV at one point. Not changing. Sorry, Matt Hayes. Your dreams will not come true.

Texas and Oklahoma closer than any sniff of SDSU or UNLV. Hilarious how out of touch East Coast guys are. Not surprised though. 

I think things about to change in a way he didn’t imagine. Especially if his lovely SEC gets destroyed by gambling and streaming, like he was talking about.

That dude is completely out of touch. Internet nerd.

[HoosierUte]

I know almost nothing about B12 politics, but is there a chance to pick off Texas Tech? Simply being the furthest West and quite a distance from the other Texas schools. I might be on board adding a Texas footprint and Vegas. 

[MDUte]

I don’t think Texas Tech would ever leave unless Texas was going. And I don’t think Texas would ever leave for the PAC 12 unless they were given special consideration for the Longhorn Network and revenue sharing. And the PAC 12 would never go for that. For those reasons, I don’t ever see us getting the tier 1 Texas schools. The Texas school that would come in a heartbeat is Houston. But I’d rather keep the PAC 12 as is in order to not have to redo the divisions which are so advantageous to us now. But as stated before, it does seem like expansion will happen at some point in the future.

[krindor]

If you’re thinking long-term, UNLV is easily the most appealing. Large (and new) market, high (enough) academics with the Tier 1 thing, good central location for the conference. I’ve been an advocate that UNLV is a potential sleeping giant.

Second option is tougher though, and where I imagine the holdup would be. Taking all the FBS teams out West and considering in order of best fit.
_______________________________________________________________________
1. Boise St has been good on the field and has growing population, but is still currently a small market (750k in Boise metro area, combined statistical area of 830k). More than that, they’re pretty terrible academically – they just moved up to Tier 2, so nowhere near Tier 1. Could maybe slide in as rival to Colorado (with Utah switching to UNLV) but the best fit of Boise/Utah would leave Colorado with UNLV which doesn’t work. Moot point since the off-field issues sink them.

2. San Diego St has the solid teams, great market, and seems a great fit at first glance, but I’d imagine USC/UCLA wouldn’t want to elevate their competition in Southern California. They’d also lack natural rivals unless UNLV/SDSU were shoehorned as rivals. Plus (in what will be recurring theme here), they’re not a Tier 1 Research University

3. Nevada is the out-of-left field darkhorse. They’re Tier 1, wouldn’t throw up issues with an existing member, have been decent on the field, and would preserve natural rivalries, simply coming in as UNLV’s rival. They’ve also had some success on the field at times. That said, it’s a tiny metro area and while it’s growing rapidly, the pace isn’t on par with Boise. Plus bringing them in would immediately weaken UNLV, which would need to improve anyway.

4. Colorado State is a slightly better fit than BYU in many ways (Tier 1 research, better culture and rivalry fit since it could go Colorado/CSU and Utah/UNLV), but has the same issue that Colorado would likely block it – plus Fort Collins isn’t a big market and PAC12 already has a footprint there. Plus, BYU is at least adequate on the field, whereas CSU is abysmal. Nice fit for rivalry purposes though, pairing UC with CSU and Utah with UNLV

5. New Mexico is Tier 1, a larger market than Boise or Wyoming, doesn’t impede on anybody’s territory and could fit from a rivalry perspective (Colorado/NM and Utah/UNLV). But they’ve also won 5+ games only twice in the last 13 years and don’t seem inclined to prioritize athletics.

6. BYU is solid on the field, but doesn’t open a new market, lacks the Tier 1 designation, has cultural issues, and Utah would probably throw up the blocks. Plus, it’s a weak market, unless you include Salt Lake, which PAC12 already has a presence. Would also create rivalry matchup issues. If BYU/Utah becomes the new designated rivalry, that leaves UNLV/Colorado? Or Utah/Colorado and BYU/UNLV?

7. Hawaii is another under-the-radar darkhorse. They’re Tier 1, population of 1.5 million, maybe provides a boost in recruiting Polynesian prospects (though PAC12 is already in the strongest position there). That said, they’re pretty weak on the field, create huge logistical issues and wouldn’t have any sort of natural rival.

8. Fresno State is another California school, but pretty far from the others, so less concern about dropping a recruiting competition in the backyard. Large population as well, and while they’ve wildly swung between good and terrible seasons, they’ve at least had some success. That said, the research is sub-Tier 2, the geography is problematic, and they just bring nothing. Every team above this at least brought something intriguing to the table, whether it’s geographic balancing, on-field success or new markets. Starting with this point, it’s just bad options.

9. Utah State is all the negatives of BYU (except for cultural issues), but less successful on the field.

10. San Jose State isn’t even a Tier 2 research institute, so weaker in that regard than even Boise St. It does have a large population base, but is right by Cal/Stanford, which would probably be an issue for those schools. Not a natural rival fit with anyone, but at least some success on the field.

11. Air Force Academy is a non-starter. As an undergrad only institution, they don’t do the type of research that the PAC12 wants, not even listed as Tier 2. They’d also be an issue for Colorado and have difficulty recruiting in general due to the off-field issues. Plus as a government sponsored team, it’s unlikely to go over well to have the military spending so much on football, especially when they’re not really very good at it. Would be a good rivalry fit, but that’s the only redeeming factor.

12. Wyoming is the worst of all worlds – bad at sports, tiny market, bad academics. Only thing they’d have going for them is location for rivalry purposes… Just a terrible fit all around.

And….that’s it. Options 1-7 are kind of options if you squint real hard and purposely ignore some glaring negatives. After that it’s just completely ludicrous. If we limit ourselves to Tier 1 Universities (as the PAC12 seems likely to do), the only names are Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado State and Hawaii, which all have their own massive issues. So UNLV makes sense, but nobody else does until one of the following happens (ordered from most to least likely)
Boise State or San Diego State improves their academics substantially
New Mexico or CSU improves their on-field product substantially
PAC12 finds a way to poach a current P5 (Nebraska or Texas Tech?)
Reno grows into a bustling metropolis
BYU improves academics AND changes cultural issues that are problematic for PAC12
Hawaii is relocated closer to the US Pacific Coast

[PhiladelphiaUte]

…except that San Diego St isn’t a Tier-1 Research institution…

[krindor]

Good call – my mistake. I was quickly googling and saw UC San Diego and made the mistake. I’ll update above. Thanks

[Central Coast Ute]

I’ve seen a couple of people claim CO will block Co St. Why? I’m wondering why people think that. Also, CO, by themselves, can’t block them. Stanford and Cal weren’t able to block Utah, so how can one school (CO) block Co St.?

[MDUte]

Given the fact that we were a mid-major when we got the invite, it wouldn’t surprise me if some/most of the schools in the conference weren’t thrilled when they learned we were invited to join the PAC 12. 

But just curious, did Stanford and Cal go on record as being against adding Utah? And if so, what was their reason…just because we were a mid-major or was it because we were from the conservative/LDS state of Utah?

[PhiladelphiaUte]

Neither Stanford nor Cal had any objections to adding Utah or Colorado.  What Stanford and Cal were worried about was losing their annual series with the L.A. schools.  But Larry Scott quieted their concerns by guaranteeing all the CA schools would be permitted to play each other every year.

USC and UCLA objected to expanding — unless Texas and Oklahoma were onboard.  Their primary objection was that at that time, the Pac-10 wasn’t an equal revenue sharing league, and Scott was pushing for equal revenue.  USC and UCLA were receiving the lion’s share of conference revenue, and they were concerned that if the league expanded, they’d be getting a smaller share of the pie.  But Scott quieted their concerns by guaranteeing them an annual minimum of $15M a year — which was slightly ahead of the $12M they were averaging.  And then Scott turned around and got the league $20M/school, so there was never any other issue.

[Central Coast Ute]

Philly Ute is correct. I was remembering it wrong. If you want a great read on how the PAC 12 came to be, read this article.
How the PAC 12 came to be

[MDUte]

Cool, thanks guys for clarifying.

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