Many of the teams we lost to in recent Novembers have been solid Top 20 teams. (UW 2017 year – 3 pt loss, WSU 2017 – close loss, CFP-bound UW 2016 – close loss, CU 2016 – close loss, Arizona 2014 – OT loss). As I recall we were underdogs is most of those games.
The only real WTF November losses I can remember are Oregon/Carrington 2016, UCLA 2015 (Booker injured and Wilson kept it on 4th and Goal), and the team completely quitting vs Arizona in the freezing rain in 2014 (and Arizona went to a NY6 game that year, so it wasn’t really a WTF loss).
I still think the ESPN FPI is pretty good for us this weekend, and that gives us a nearly 70% chance to win. Ball takes a funny bounce, and we get a case of the drops, then things will go badly. But I fully expect we will win this game by 17+ points.