Utah, the Big 12, & Recruiting

[Utah]

Now that the dust has settled on the Big12…16…whatever, who has been the best recruiting team the last 3 years? 4 years? 5 years?

Utah. And in some ways it’s not that close.

That is what is most crazy about this move. Now we have to keep it up the next two years, but we aren’t going into this conference as a MWC who has to build. We go into the conference one of, if not the most talented team.

That is mind-blowing. Now, I know this isn’t the end-all-be-all…for example, most of the players from Colorado’s classes aren’t even there anymore, so take their ranking with a grain of salt. And I bet a lot of ASU’s higher ranked players are also gone…but still, it gives a good overview of talent and Utah rules the roost.

3 year average (per 247. I took 2023 plus 2022 plus 2021 and divided that by 3):

1. Utah (29)
2. Baylor (37.7)
3. Oklahoma St (38)
4. TCU (40)
5. West Virginia (41.7)
6. Arizona (46)
7. Colorado (46.5)
8. Iowa State (46.6)
9. Texas Tech (48.3)
10. ASU (48.5)
11. Kansas St (50.7)
12. UCF (53.3)
13. Cincinnati (54)
14. Houston (65)
15. BYU (66.3)
16. Kansas (84.3)

4 Year Average Ranking:

1. Utah (29.5)
2. TCU (35.8)
3. OSU (38.5)
4. Baylor (40.5)
5. WVU (40.5)
6. Colorado (44)
7. Iowa St (46.5)
8. Texas Tech (48.2)
9. Arizona (49)
10. Kansas St (50.7)
11. Cincinnati (50.8)
12. ASU (56)
13. UCF (58.8)
14. Houston (66.8)
15. BYU (69.8)
16. Kansas (77)

5 year average ranking:

1. Utah (32.2)
2. TCU (34.6)
3. OSU (38)
4. Baylor (39.4)
5. WVU (42.2)
6. Colorado (44)
7.Iowa St (46.4)
8. ASU (50.6)
9. Arizona (51)
10. Texas Tech (51)
11. Kansas St (53.4)
12. Cincinnati (54)
13. UCF (59)
14. Houston (67.8)
15. BYU (72)
16. Kansas (75.4)

[2008 National Champ]

The Team Talent Composite might be a better metric since it takes into account who is on the team each year instead of recruiting rankings which aren’t updated based on player movement.

2020 (school, composite, OA rank)
1. Texas Christian 712.39 (28)
2. Arizona State 701.99 (30)
3. Utah 646.24 (39)
4. Baylor 642.13 (41)
5. Oklahoma State 637.96 (42)
6. West Virginia 631.27 (44)
7. Colorado 628.76 (46)
8. Texas Tech 619.35 (49)
9. Houston 605.75 (55)
10. Iowa State 602.96 (57)
11. Cincinatti 600.61 (59)
12. Central Florida 593.42 (60)
13. Arizona 564.56 (68)
14. Kansas State 560.68 (69)
15. Kansas 546.08 (72)
16. parochial school 506.64 (81)

2021:
1. Arizona State 737.61 (26)
2. Texas Christian 712.57 (30)
3. Utah 707.72 (32)
4. Baylor 660.39 (41)
5. Oklahoma State 645.68 (46)
6. Colorado 640.85 (48)
7. Central Florida 639.04 (49)
8. Cincinatti 626.54 (53)
9. Iowa State 613.6 (57)
10. West Virginia 613.00 (58)
11. Texas Tech 605.86 (61)
12. Arizona 578.12 (66)
13. Kansas State 569.65 (71)
14. Houston 568.08 (72)
15. Kansas 547.75 (73)
16. parochial school 443.73 (93)

2022:
1. Texas Christian 712.05 (32)
2. Utah 705.12 (33)
3. Oklahoma State 670.53 (39)
4. Arizona State 670.18 (40)
5. Baylor 666.05 (41)
6. West Virginia 662.57 (43)
7. Texas Tech 660.31 (44)
8. Arizona 652.06 (48)
9. Cincinatti 650.89 (49)
10. Central Florida 636.16 (53)
11. Houston 629.12 (58)
12. Colorado 616.28 (61)
13. Iowa State 590.43 (64)
14. Kansas State 584.68 (66)
15. Kansas 574.29 (69)
16. parochial school 415.19 (106)

No system is perfect but if you just bet the higher team in the composite every game, you’d win 67.2% of the time from 2015 through 2021.

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