Utes now at -2.5.

This topic has 7 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 3 months ago by shakeitsugaree.

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- 09/07/2017 at 9:12 PM #40028
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  cjd1
  Participant
  
  Go Utes!
- 09/08/2017 at 9:17 AM #40062
  
  CincyUte
  Participant
  
  Question about sports betting.
  
  I always understood that the lines are set so as to bring in even money on both sides. I thought the idea was to attract bettors to wager equally on each team.
  
  But looking at the betting trends this week, there are several games in which one team has brought in the vast majority of the bets. For instance, 98% of the bettors have come in for Utah, representing 86% of the money. Am I reading this right? Does this mean the oddsmakers screwed up? Note many other games are smiilarly disproportionate.
  - 09/08/2017 at 9:34 AM #40064
    
    oc_ute
    Participant
    
    Question about sports betting.
    
    I always understood that the lines are set so as to bring in even money on both sides. I thought the idea was to attract bettors to wager equally on each team.
    
    But looking at the betting trends this week, there are several games in which one team has brought in the vast majority of the bets. For instance, 98% of the bettors have come in for Utah, representing 86% of the money. Am I reading this right? Does this mean the oddsmakers screwed up? Note many other games are smiilarly disproportionate.
    
    My response…
  - 09/08/2017 at 10:30 AM #40079
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    shakeitsugaree
    Participant
    
    lines are set so as to bring in even money on both sides
    
    Yes, at the close of betting, the net of all bets on a game should be even on both sides of the line. In order to do that, the line is continually set to generate bets on the side that is ‘behind’ in total money collected.
    
    So, the Utah line opened with Utah getting points, bets came in on Utah, now the line is set to encourage betting on BYU. This allows the house to break even on payouts (essentially what is paid to the winners is what was collected from the losers), while coming out ahead on the ‘juice.’
  - 09/08/2017 at 11:42 AM #40092
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    shakeitsugaree
    Participant
    
    One more thing
    
    Just looked at the odds on the Utah/BYU game at Bovada. They are giving even money on Utah -3. I think this line keeps moving towards Utah, until the juice kicks in on the Utah point spread.
    
    This may be where some of the confusion lies. The line will move until people stop betting on one side and start betting on the other. So, even though most of the money to date has been put on Utah, I don’t see that changing until the Utah bet is no longer lucrative, which based on the juice right now, it could be a while before money starts coming in on BYU.
    
    Does this mean the oddsmakers screwed up? That might be a question for someone smarter than me. What I will say, is that I have found that Vegas is often wrong about Utah – inasmuch as they don’t have a good feel for the type of team Utah is.
    - 09/08/2017 at 1:29 PM #40117
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      GameForAnyFuss
      Participant
      
      I don’t think it’s so much that the oddsmakers screwed up – it’s just that Vegas simply doesn’t care about this game. Here’s what I mean:
      
      Most odds, even on websites that are based out of who knows where, come from Vegas. And Vegas oddsmakers are always going to focus their research on games that will bring in the most money (because that’s where their clients [the casinos] will make or lose their money). Games that are expected to bring in big money get the most attention. So consider this:
      
      – Utah/BYU-P is a relatively small-time, regional game. Not a lot of bettors outside of Utah will put money on this game.
      – Both fanbases are not big sports gamblers – blame LDS culture – and most people tend to bet on teams they follow (even though you really shouldn’t do that, everyone does it anyway). Again, not a lot of money will change hands on this game.
      
      And the big one: We’re up against USC/Stanford, which will be a huge money game nationally and in Vegas. Not only will it draw casual bettors, a lot of people from SoCal are in Vegas every weekend, so there will be tons of SC fans in town, drunk off their asses and making stupid bets.
      
      That’s my theory for why the line is so far off for Utah’s game this weekend.
      - 09/08/2017 at 1:42 PM #40118
        
        shakeitsugaree
        Participant
        
        Yes, absolutely this
        
        If the house loses some small potatoes on the Utah/BYU game, who cares? They have much bigger money coming in elsewhere.
        
        Great post
- 09/08/2017 at 9:40 AM #40065
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  oc_ute
  Participant
  
  that is exactly how it works. vegas established byu by 1.5. all the money going to utah. line adjusted slowly. this is how vegas attempts (usually works) to keep equal money on both sides. when that happens, vegas always wins
  edit… i have no idea what button i pushed to repeat your post. can’t figure out how to delete it either. sorry
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