Warning: Lots of Numbers… ESPN FPI & Massey projections

[St George Ute]

The ESPN Football Power Index shows Utah with a 32.3% chance of winning the conference championship. Below are the FPI ratings for the PAC-12:

Rank Team W-L Proj W-L Win Out % Conf Win % Rem SOS Rk FPI
10 Washington 7-3 8.8 – 3.7 33.5 33.5 55 16.9
13 Utah 7-3 9.0 – 3.7 39.8 32.3 49 14.4
18 Washington St 9-1 10.5 – 2.0 19.3 24.7 27 13.1
21 Stanford 6-4 7.4 – 4.6 50.5 0 40 12.7
39 Oregon 6-4 7.5 – 4.5 56.3 0 80 8.5
42 Arizona State 6-4 7.0 – 5.3 5.8 9 18 7.6
43 USC 5-5 5.9 – 6.1 17.8 0 25 7
49 Cal 6-4 7.0 – 5.0 22.8 0 46 4.4
55 Arizona 5-5 5.7 – 6.4 7.7 0.4 19 3.8
61 Colorado 5-5 5.5 – 6.5 6.9 0 17 1.4
68 UCLA 2-8 2.6 – 9.4 9.1 0 30 0.3
104 Oregon St 2-8 2.1 – 9.9 0.3 0 12 -11.7

Massey Projected Final Records update for 11/12:

South

Utah (9-3, 6-3)

ASU (7-5, 5-4)

USC (6-6, 5-4)

Arizona (6-6, 5-4)

Colorado (6-6, 3-6)

UCLA (3-9, 3-6)

Massey shows Utah with a 79% probability of beating CO while they show ASU with a 41% chance of beating OR and a 51% chance of beating AZ (toss-up). Chances of them winning both games is 20.91%. Chances of them losing both is 28.91% while probability of winning one and losing the other is 50.18% (if I did the math correctly). Combining Utah’s probability of winning with ASU’s probability of losing one or both, gives Utah a 62.48% chance of winning the South as of today. Win against CO and Utah’s chances jump to 79.09%.

North

Wash St (10-2, 7-2)

UW (8-4, 6-3)

Stanford (8-4, 6-3)

Oregon (7-5, 4-5)

Cal (7-5, 4-5)

Oregon St (2-10, 1-8)

Likely the winner of the Apple Cup will win the North. Granted, both have games this week, but their probability of winning is UW 98% vs OrSt and Wazzu 87% vs AZ. Chances of the Apple Cup deciding the North winner is 85.26%. That should be a fun game to watch.

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