Why the point spread changed

[ProudUte]

I accidently ran into this article via a news site on the web.  This article claims that the point spread on the game this weekend changed simply because of Chris Hutson’s comments and nothing more.  This Duck insider has no more info on whether Nix will play or not.

Ducks Wire

So, do the guys in Vegas simply believe Hutson, or have they done more research?

The writer of this article seems to think Utah will win big if Oregon is without Nix.

 

[Tony (admin)]

Spreads move when a lot of money is bet on one side. They move to entice bettors to bet evenly on both sides since the sports book makes the “vig” (vigorish) best that way. 

[D T]

But it went from UO-3 to U -2 in a matter of 5 hours.

That was because of bets being thrown down?

[Tony (admin)]

That’s my guess. Big bets on one side when they heard the “news.” 

[D T]

So, it shifted ultimately because of their WR’s revelation? I believe Vegas went off more than just his statement.

[Tony (admin)]

I don’t know the why, I just know the how. 

[D T]

Understood…..Sounds like the bets on us & the line shifting in our direction were ignited by their WR’s statement [& probably further investigation IMO].

I’m convinced we beat UO regardless of Nix’s status…..GO UTES!!!!!

[Trailgoat]

My hunch, Vegas knows more than just Hudson’s slip up if that’s what was. Guessing Vegas flipping the spread is not based on a one off statement from a college kid. There’s always a Vegas insider garnering inside information when millions of dollars are at stake. Hard saying if it’s a perception move to keep the money spread evenly. As stated by many on the board, Vegas is in the business of making money not predicting who will win the game. Either way, everybody is banged up this time of year. Upside for Utah, other than Kuithe, Utah’s weathered the mid-season storm over the past few weeks with the next man up mantra. Defense has been growing up each game, Rising is getting healthy, TT essentially starting his season right now. Oline and WR room are stepping up. Utah has a huge mental coaching advantage going into this game. 

IMO, this is Rising’s time to shine and finish his career strong. Rising has not played to his potential since the USC game, but a lot of other guys are stepping up. Only issue is Utah has struggled against good teams away from home.

[ProudUte]

I agree, Goat.

[UtesRule]

I think the comment from the WR in the interview might have spurned more investigating though, and I 100% believe the change was MUCH more a result of information about Bo Nix possibly not playing, or at least not being that close to 100% for the game, rather than a lack of money being put down on the game. The timing of when it happened, relative to when the news started coming out about Nix is too close to be a coincidence.

Either way….GO UTES…BEAT NIKE U!!!

[UrbanLiar]

It wasn’t a “lack of money” being put on the game. Instead it was a disproportionate amount of bets on Utah plus 3 points, so the line had to shift quickly to motivate bets on the Ducks so regardless of the outcome the casinos still make their typical vigirish/house cut of 9%. Keeping the line at Ducks minus 3 exposed the casinos on the vigorish. They had to make adjustments ASAP to eliminate that potential house loss.

[Utesbyfive]

This. Vegas only knows that money coming in on Utah was disproportionate. They shifted the line to get more people betting on Oregon.

[EagleMountainUte]

Example from this season:  Anyone say if the line changed for the Wazzu game?  Sure seemed like no one had a clue on Rising sitting for that one. 

[UtesRule]

This directly from John Canzano’s weekly email about this very topic:

 

“Decide for yourself if it was a tactical smokescreen or whether Oregon Ducks’ receiver Kris Hutson simply slipped up. Las Vegas bookmakers took Hutson at his word this week when he confessed to reporters: “Obviously, Bo is down, so it’s the next man up.”

He was talking about quarterback Bo Nix.

The bookmakers heard and began scrambling.

The Ducks opened as a 3-point favorite over Utah for Saturday’s game at Autzen Stadium. Oregon’s coaching staff won’t say if Nix will play or even what his injury is. The quarterback isn’t talking, either. But after Hutson’s comments, the point-spread reversed.

Utah is now a 3-point favorite.“

[UtesRule]

This directly from John Canzano’s weekly email about this very topic:

 

“Decide for yourself if it was a tactical smokescreen or whether Oregon Ducks’ receiver Kris Hutson simply slipped up. Las Vegas bookmakers took Hutson at his word this week when he confessed to reporters: “Obviously, Bo is down, so it’s the next man up.”

He was talking about quarterback Bo Nix.

The bookmakers heard and began scrambling.

The Ducks opened as a 3-point favorite over Utah for Saturday’s game at Autzen Stadium. Oregon’s coaching staff won’t say if Nix will play or even what his injury is. The quarterback isn’t talking, either. But after Hutson’s comments, the point-spread reversed.

Utah is now a 3-point favorite.“

[Author]

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