Will Utah ever win a natty?

[SalUteopia]

The last time a team won the NC for the first time was 1996 (Florida). In the BCS and CFP era, the NC winning teams have averaged 15 or better in recruiting rankings over a 4-year stretch. And their blue chip ratio (number of 4* & 5* players divided by total number of players) has been greater than 0.5 (2010 Auburn being the only exception). None of this is really a surprise, and the trend will continue.

So, how does this bode for a team like Utah? Will we ever win a championship? I think we’re close-ish coaching wise, but how do we bridge the talent gap? Surely we’re trending in the right direction, but will we ever break the top-15 consistently, especially in the wake of NIL? Not to mention other factors such as lack of mega donors, power consolidation by the top dogs, etc. that will make it ever harder to sustain success. How do we make it happen then? Are there any other creative alternatives?

[UteThunder]

If Utah can make 2004 and 2008 happen, Utah can win a national championship. It will require some things breaking our way that are out of our control, just like 2004 and 2008 did, but Utah can win one. Hell, we’ve already been on the verge of making the playoffs and we are only 10 years into being a P5 program. Imagine what another 10 years of P5 status could do for our program.

[beaslad]

Short answer: no. Long answer: hell no.

[Ute2]

Clearly somebody has never seen Angels in The Outfield.

[2008 National Champ]

did they win cheap beer?

[Trailgoat]

KW has done amazing work building a culture of high charactor, hard working, young men. His performance in the past 10 years as head coach is not reflective of a evolving NC program. Last two years were two of Utah’s best seasons so hopefully we are seeing a more upward moving trend where Utah wins a P12 title. 

P12 in the past 10 seasons including Covid short season:

P12 record 45-41

50% winning record seasons

3 Top-20 Coaches (two in first 5 years, one in last 5 years)

7-20 record against the three P12 power programs (USC, UO, UW)

[Johnny]

Early 90s FSU and even Nebraska started rolling people up. Money wasn’t as big, but I see the University of Utah making strides they made back then. 

[ProudUte]

I hope we do!

However, the odds are against us and most teams for that matter.  

There are 130 eligible teams.  If all things were equal – we would win one every 130 years.

Our odds improve 100% if you say that only P5 teams will win a NC.

BUT – all things are not equal.  The rich are getting richer as can be seen with the events of the last few weeks.  The best of the best do not want to allow anyone else in their club.  They prefer total domination.  

The top-tier teams are Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.

The second tier IMO includes: Georgia, LSU, Florida, and Notre Dame.

The third tier includes: Texas, Michigan, Penn State, TAMU, FSU, Miami, Wisconsin, Auburn, and maybe Oregon and USC.  (These are teams that have the money, tradition, and facilities, and could get back into the top 2 tiers with a few excellent seasons.)

At least 80% of all national champions will come from the top 2 tiers and 95% will come from the top 3 tiers IMO.  

So, once in 20 years a team outside the top 3 tiers will MAYBE win a NC.  That team will likely come from the 4th tier of teams.  I think there are possibly 20 teams in that 4th tier including Utah.  That would suggest that our chances are about 1 in 400 to win a NC.

Of course,  these tiers and numbers are not science they are just one old man’s opinion.

All of this being said, I have always been of the belief that we could enter the top two tiers over time.  You do not have to be in a large metro area.  Look at what Nebraska did in the 90s (3 championships).  Look at Oklahoma today.  So, the first question is – can we get into the top 2 tiers of football teams?  I believe it is possible, but we need to start landing 5-star recruits.  Also, the PAC12 needs to improve as a conference.  We will likely never be an SEC, but we need to be that next-best conference.

[MDUte]

If the PAC was able to reduce Conf games to 8, I believe you’d see a PAC team in the playoff every year while it’s a 4 team playoff. I don’t know if we can do that before our GOR is up because our current media contract is set for a 9 Conf game schedule to provide that additional amount of content. But that’s the huge advantage the SEC and ACC have had over the PAC and others.

Personally, though, I think the ACC and SEC should be forced to increase their Conf game schedule to 9. Who wants to watch Alabama play 2 FCS quality opponents each year? For the fans, that sucks. But as long as this is what’s happening, it’s better to follow their model rather than leave them with such an advantage. I hope the day comes where there’s either a P4 or P2 (and of course we are part of it) where teams play only P-level teams all year….no more FCS garbage and eliminate G5 games too. IMO, if you played a schedule of 12 P-level teams, that would be the most fun and exciting to watch week in and week out. Could be 8 Conf and 4 OOC or 9 and 3 or even 10 and 2…whatever the configuration, that would make for the best regular season IMO.

Long way of saying that scheduling uniformity needs to happen more than anything.

[dystopiamembrane]

This 8 game vs 9 game season argument is confusing to me. Are you saying that you would prefer to remove one of our conference games and add an additional light weight?
This year we would have Weber State, BYU, San Diego State, and some other practice squad.
There is a lot of love on this board for other Pac-12 teams. Are you suggesting we remove one of those teams to add Liberty or Delaware State or some other?
Confused in Portland

[MDUte]

Yes, if the ACC and SEC are not forced to move to a 9 game Conf schedule then I believe the PAC should decrease to an 8 game Conf schedule. This is not what I would want to see happen because it sucks for us fans to replace a good quality game with a crappy body bag game. But it’s currently unfair because it creates 6 additional losses within our conference each year (some of those being upset losses) which leads to our top teams each year ending the season with 2 or more losses and this narrative that the PAC is a weaker conference. I love our 9 game Conf schedule because, as a fan, we get to watch a much more exciting and higher quality schedule each year than SEC/ACC fans. But every year, they get to watch their top teams waltz into the CFP and pound their chests that their conferences are superior to ours.

[Hellhound152]

All of the P-4.5’s should play uniform conference schedules.  If it is 8 games they should be required to play two intersectional P-4.5 games, if it is 9 they should play one intersectional P-4.5.  FCS games and G5 games are good for college football on the whole from a trickle down economics standpoint and should not go away.  

I appreciate the sentiment given my irritation with SEC dominance but the assertion that the heavies in the SEC are playing 2 FCS and 2 Sun Belt teams to round out the non league schedule is not true.  The top tier SEC have used that extra game for big time intersectional games against the likes of Texas, Notre Dame, etc. in addition to annual “rivalry games” with regional ACC foes.

The November filler game is a huge advantage for the SEC but the old misnomer of 4 scheduled wins hasn’t been reality for a while now for the top teams.

[MDUte]

Agree and disagree with you. It’s true that there is trickle down economic effect for G5/FCS playing P5 teams. Their athletic departments rely on the paycheck they receive from playing those games to help fund their athletics for the year. However, P5 should only provide the trickle down to G5. Then G5 should be the ones to provide the trickle down to FCS. P5 has absolutely NO business whatsoever playing FCS games. These games are garbage and should be done away with. They’re bad for fans who pay good money to watch their teams play, they’re bad for business, and they’re bad for college football.

Regarding scheduling, when I said FCS quality games I didn’t mean that teams were scheduling 2 or 4 OOC FCS games each year. I just was making the argument that the top teams are scheduling 2 FCS “quality” games each year, where 1 is FCS and 1 is low level G5. Look at Alabama’s schedule in 2017, 2018, 2019:

2017 OOC: Fresno St (G5), Colorado St (G5), Mercer (FCS), and Florida St (P5)

2017 Conf: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Miss St, Auburn

2017: arguably only 4 games that Alabama could potentially lose

2018 OOC: Louisville (P5), Arkansas St (low level G5), Louisiana (low level G5), Citadel (FCS)

2018 Conf: Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Miss St, Auburn

2018: arguably only 3, maybe 4 teams they could lose to

2019 OOC: Duke (P5), New Mexico St (low level Independent), Southern Miss (low level G5), Western Carolina (FCS)

2019 Conf: South Carolina, Ole Miss, TAMU, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi St, Auburn

2019: 3 teams they could lose to

And none of this takes into consideration how Alabama always schedules their FCS game in week 10 or 11, providing them 2 bye weeks every year. Add to this Alabama schedules 7 home games every year to only 4 road games; the 12th game is their big OOC game that they play on a neutral field to begin each season.

If you contrast this to PAC 12 schedules, it isn’t even close. Stanford is playing a schedule this year against 12 P5s. I’m not saying the SEC isn’t the best league. But they roll out schedules each year that give every advantage possible to their top teams. My point is, Alabama basically has to win 3 games each year and they’re in the playoffs.

[MDUte]

[dystopiamembrane]

The PAC is a weaker conference. We all know this.

[MDUte]

Top half is stronger, not arguing that. But given the competitiveness from top to bottom of the PAC, the gap between the SEC or B1G and the PAC is not as wide as everyone is made to believe.

If Helton is finally fired and the right coach is hired at SC (should’ve hired Urban when they had the chance) SC would immediately return to elite status like Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio St. Cristobal is close to having Oregon at that level. When you have Oregon and SC both at that level, the PAC won’t be taking a back seat anymore. That’s been the big perception killer to the PAC 12.

[Dwight89]

I’ll never say never. But I will confidently say that at Utah’s current recruiting level they will not win a national championship. Now, if we can keep inching recruiting up and get to that sacred blue chip ratio, with Scalley in the wings to take over Whitt’s job, then yeah, it’s definitely a possibility. But, that has to happen first, IMO. 

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