He’s an impressive back with one clear advantage over nearly every other back on NFL radars…breakaway speed. When he gets to the second level, he takes it to the house with unequalled frequency. However, he showns less ability to gain yards after contact compared to other backs, has a history of fumbling (that he’s quickly putting to rest), and the biggest red flag…early retirement.
Some other causes for discretion: he tends to gain yards in the second half against tired defenses, and his big breaks come from getting to the second level untouched (meaning the O-line did the work to get him there), which is a bit of a concern in the NFL where D-linemen are so good that getting to that level untouched with frequency takes a truly great offensive line.
NFL backs have seen their draft stock drop remarkably over the past 10 years. It’s now rare to see a runningback taken in the first round. Most offenses are 2 or 3 deep with runningbacks that see very little dropoff within the rotation. Because of this, his retirment may not actually hurt him that much. Teams don’t spend that much on backs anymore, so drafting him isn’t that big of a risk.
I would put him somewhere around Jeremy McNichols from BSU to Elijah Hood from UNC, meaning hovering around a top 10 spot. That would place him somewhere in the late 3rd to mid 5th round. How he finishes the year can solidify that spot, but I don’t see him moving up too much from there.
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