I agree with your assessment of the first 3 games.
I think Utah will win a close highly contested game in Stillwater. If they do win I think that makes the game against Arizona more scary. Coming off such an emotional game feeling they just got passed their most significant hurdle could make them ripe for a letdown against an Arizona team that is coming off a bye week.
If they lose to OSU, I think the Arizona game will be a massacre, Arizona won’t have a chance.
I think the next significant challenge is Colorado. By the time we play them, we will know how this new Bison team is working out. They replaced most of their team again and did pick up some highly rated players so by the time we play them we’ll know. This could be a tough game in their house.
ISU looks like a solid team but we have them at home and Utah seldom loses at home.
As about everyone has already stated, this game is setup for failure. Very long travel, the day after Thanksgiving and the short week. I think this game could come down to depth of each team. UCF has added some high rated recruits and probably will do pretty well this year.
I think it’s more likely Utah will come into this game in better physical condition than UCF. I feel our depth in almost every position is very good. UCF can’t afford many injuries because they lack that depth. This could be enough of an advantage to pull this game out for the UTES, even though the travel and scheduling suck.
I think UTAH will go 12-0 OR 11-1 with a first round bye in the CFP.