[krindor]

It’s worse than that – there’s a possibility that a 2 loss Big 12 champ could get left out. Probably not BYU (currently #14) or Colorado (#16), but if Arizona St (#21) and Army (#19)both were to win out, then even an 11-2 ASU could be in danger

Consider that Army is currently ahead of ASU. And ASU would add two quality wins (#14 BYU, #16 Colorado)… but so would Army (#6 Notre Dame, #20 Tulane). So it’s hard to see how those results would bump ASU over Army.

And the top 12 teams then have 8 certainties – Oregon, Ohio St, Texas, Penn St, Indiana (even a loss to tOSU won’t drop them too far), ACC Champ, Boise St, Army. And then the last 4 spots are a competition between Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, ACC runner-up, Notre Dame, Arizona St, Texas A&M (if they beat Texas), Clemson. I DO think Arizona St would still make it in that case, but I don’t think they’d be top 5 conference champs.

That said, I can’t see Army beating Notre Dame, which makes this all a likely moot point

[krindor]

Realistically, I think we (barring Wilson transferring out) go into next season with a (declared at least) 4 way battle for starting QB

• Transfer QB as the likely favorite
• Brandon Rose as the guy who has looked good in short chances, but mostly hurt
• Isaac Wilson as the touted recruit that struggled but is hopefully better with some seasoning
• Freshman QB

Realistically, not all 4 of those will come in with equal likelihood, but I think we’ll at least give lip service to the idea that they’re all in the mix

[krindor]

My take from as neutral an observer as I can be

If we’re going letter of the rulebook, there’s 5 penalties in that play. And it was the last one (also the most meaningless one) that hurt Utah

1. Jatta (#50) has a pretty good hold on the passrusher coming up the middle
2. A different Utah pass rusher comes and runs the RB over….which is allowed, except that he does so with hands to the face, which is not allowed
3. Phillips (BYU #13) extends the arm and pushes Vaughn off, just before Vaughn grabs Phillips’ shoulder
4. Zemaiah Vaughn gets the yank on Jojo Phillips early
5. Vaughn then wraps his arm around Phillips’ torso 

Given all that, the MOST correct call would have been offsetting penalties, replay 4th down. But if we slow every play down and look carefully, I’d wager there’s multiple offsetting penalties on just about every play. Calling every penalty correctly would frankly ruin the flow and enjoyment of the game.

And the first two here (the offensive hold and the passrusher hands to the face) are common enough at the LOS to get lost. They’re still penalties by rule, but not egregious enough to be called/noticed there.

Even the third and fourth foul probably doesn’t get called there. It’s in the first five yards, they’re mixed in with some hand fighting and (fair or not, though I lean towards not) game situation has an impact on how refs call things.  And note the ref doesn’t go for his flag there.

But the fifth one (Vaughn’s arm around Phillip’s torso) is big enough and blatant enough that it’ll get called every time. And (my opinion, and based off when the ref went for his flag) that’s the part that got Utah penalized

Interestingly, it was probably also the least impactful of the five. By THAT point (not the Phillips push-off or the Vaughn shoulder yank), the Utah defenders already had hands on Retzlaff and he wasn’t going anywhere. Without that second part by Vaughn, Phillips probably does beat him. And it almost certainly doesn’t matter because Retzlaff still goes down and the game is over. And then BYU fans are the ones sitting and complaining about the missed defensive hold (or passrusher hands to the face) and the officiating.

But the bottom line is that last action (wrapping the arm) was too egregious to be ignored, even if less impactful than the other fouls. So, we can argue it’s ticky-tack and shouldn’t get called there, but that last part was probably egregious and blatant enough to leave the refs no other choice (even if it had zero impact on the play – the ref is watching the receivers, not the QB, so doesn’t know the play is effectively over by then). And more importantly, we absolutely still had the opportunity to hold on defense. A no-call there would have won us the game, but the call didn’t lose it for us. Also worth noting there were worse calls earlier – both ways (BYU fans will point out the phantom facemask in the second quarter, Utah fans can point to a terrible offensive hold on Utah in the fourth that turned 4th and 1 into 4th and 10 and a punt).

[krindor]

93% of bettors are betting on BYU. And yet the line is moving towards Utah.

Which means one of two things

1. Lots of small bets on BYU and some massive whales on Utah – basically that the average bet on Utah is 14x larger than the average bet on BYU.

2. Vegas is exposed and could lose a bunch if BYU covers, but is confident about the outcome and also stands to make a ton of BYU loses. Basically that they’ve decided the amount of exposure is worth it.

Option 2 could be the case, but I imagine it’s likely option #1

College Football Public Betting Trends & Money Percentages

[krindor]

I expect (assuming everyone stays, which isn’t a guarantee) a 4 way competition next season.

Transfer QB as the favorite
Brandon Rose as the guy who has played well in short bits, but has been hurt
Isaac Wilson as the guy who struggled as a freshman, but hopefully put work in the offseason
And then the true freshman also at least getting to be theoretically in the mix….but not realistically

[krindor]

This gets to what rankings are supposed to be. Is it a reflection of resume and accomplishment? Or of which team is the best?

Reality is that if Alabama played BYU, every metric would favor Alabama. They’re probably the better team. But BYU has the better resume based on pulling out a few miracle wins. Which is why BYU is higher.

And ultimately, that’s the right way to do it. It should be one who has the best on-field results, not who is probably actually subjectively better

[krindor]

Well, he said it’s Pittman and another WR and that between them they’ve combined for 7 receptions.

Pittman has 6.

So if I’m looking at the guys with exactly 1 catch, it’s between Miki Suguturaga (not a WR), Munir McClain (who Ghost says is “definitely still on the team”) and Taeshawn Lyons.

[krindor]

As a chaos gremlin, I would love this

Dybantsa takes $6M (mostly from Smith) to come play for BYU. He’s everything he’s reported to be, a Wooden finalist, the obvious #1 pick, and he leads BYU to a #8 finish.

But then, #3 seed BYU is somehow upset by #14 Duquesne in the first round of the NCAA tournament. And shockingly, Kevin Young convinced Dybantsa that he can’t go out like that, plus he’ll be developed as well by Young as he would in the NBA anyway. So Dybantsa surprises everyone and offers to come back for another year, another $6M. BYU fans/boosters are ecstatic.

And then, in May, the Jazz beat the lottery odds and get the #1 pick. And suddenly Ryan Smith no longer wants to donate NIL for Dybantsa…and will be angry if anyone else at BYU does.

It’s a far-fetched scenario obviously… But the chaos and tension of it would make for a really fascinating story

[krindor]

*Wilson fumbled, Houston got the ball at the Utah 28
*Utah defense held Houston at the 1
*Utah had a 3 and out, punted for net 21 yards
*Houston got the ball at the Utah 23 and scored a touchdown

Point being, anyone selling that goal-line stand as “And Houston almost had another 7!” is ignoring that it kept Houston in great field position for that next score.

That’s why I was saying it’s more accurate to say the goal line stand delayed a touchdown, more than prevented it. If the offense had moved the ball, it could have been prevented, but Houston eventually capitalized on the Wilson fumble.

[krindor]

To be fair, one of those “shooting themselves in the foot” ended up a TD for Houston anyway. Yeah, Utah stopped them, but then got no yardage, and had a net 21 yard punt, meaning Houston started inside the Utah 30.

So that one really only delayed the score, more than taking a score away

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