BYU has been ‘lucky’ all year (Just like Utah was in 2008, can’t go undefeated without luck)
They’ve been on the “lucky” side of the net success rate most of their games. Meaning, they have won lots of games they should have lost. Here are 4 games where they’ve had a super negative net success rate and won: Utah, OSU, KSU, Baylor
https://www.twitter.com/statsowar/status/1855977930800935403
https://www.twitter.com/statsowar/status/1848386516495585685
https://www.twitter.com/statsowar/status/1840753435530166658
https://www.twitter.com/statsowar/status/1838210854271295897
NET SUCCESS RATE: Percent of plays with EPA > 0 on offense – Percent of plays with EPA > 0 on defense.
All net success rate does is strip out some noise and present a view of how two teams compared in the down to down business of moving the football.
“Games are won and lost with explosives, special teams, turnovers, etc, and looking at net success rate just shows us how close the margins were.
It’s a good diagnostic to go back and look at a game and learn something:
• Positive net success rate and lost? Let’s identify what went wrong – were those decisive plays sustainable/likely to carry over into future performance?
• Huge net success rate and didn’t win by much? Where might you have failed to take advantage of good situations or made mistakes on drives that altered the score? What does that tell us about going forward?
• Super even net success rate? Let’s look at the weird plays! What does that tell us about the relative strength of the two teams and how they might perform going forward?”
Mississippi Valley State @ 
Utah 
