popbirch
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popbirch replied to the topic A quick analysis of some of our players for this season in the forum Football 8 years ago
The Brian Allen strip/missed tackle was partly fogals fault. If Mwilliams was in that play would have been stopped.
Fogal is supposed to be over the top on that play but takes an atrocious angle to the catch and then runs full speed at the WR to make up for the bad angle and then makes a weak arm tackle attempt.
If Allen had just gone for the…[Read more]
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popbirch replied to the topic I thought this was an interesting statistic in the forum Football 8 years ago
Urbans teams are almost always some of the most heavily penalized teams. When he was here it was the same way. Like Utah said its a fine line between aggressive play and penalties. Urbans would much rather have tight coverage every play and a possible penalty than loose coverage. Same with oline play, his teams get called for holding much more…[Read more]
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popbirch started the topic Win or Lose we still control our destiny in the south in the forum Football 8 years ago
If we lose to UW we are 4-2 which means that if we win out going 7-2 we would win all tie breakers with any other team that could also get to 7-2. USC can win out and get to 7-2 but we beat them so we win that tie. If both USC and colo get to 7-2 we still win that tie breaker since we own the best record against the teams in a 3 way tie (2-0 vs…[Read more]
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popbirch replied to the topic Key Washington statistic in the forum Football 8 years, 1 month ago
I think the key to winning this game is about establishing the run and TO margin.
If we can get the run game going early we can keep the ball out of their hands that is how you limit a fast scoring offense. That is always the best way to keep teams like that out of the game. That is what we typically try to do as much as possible against these…[Read more]
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popbirch started the topic stats vs Washington and some thoughts in the forum Football 8 years, 1 month ago
Utes vs Washington
Scoring offense 29.9 vs 48.3 W for wash
total offense 433 yd/game vs 483 yds/game W for Wash
Adjusted scoring offense -.3pts/game vs 12.8 pts/game W for wash
SCoring defense 21.6 vs 14.6pts/game W for Wash
Total defense 363 yds/game vs 318 yds/game
Turnover margin +8 vs +14 W for Wash
Strength of offenses faced, average 74th in…[Read more] -
popbirch replied to the topic Utes vs UCLA in the forum Football 8 years, 1 month ago
The real answer to that is because people from utah don’t bet enough we end up giving the other team a few extra points on the spread in order to entice utah fans to bet more.
The point spread is not really a prediction of the game, it is designed to draw equal betting on both sides so that the sports books make money.
In most statistical…[Read more]
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popbirch replied to the topic Utes vs UCLA in the forum Football 8 years, 1 month ago
The adjusted scoring offense and defense numbers should directly address strength of schedule issues. For example, to better explain that number if UCLA scored 40 on a team that usually gives up 40 that not really a great game for them even though usually their offense scores 26 so it seems like they outperformed their opponent they really only…[Read more]
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popbirch started the topic Utes vs UCLA in the forum Football 8 years, 1 month ago
Utah is slightly better in almost every category that matters against UCLA.Utah- UCLAscoring offense 26.7-26 pts/game, Utah edgetotal yards 417-409 yds/game Utah edgeAdjusted scoring offense, points scored above teams average scoring defesnse, -4 vs -1Scoring defense 18.29- 23.14 Utah edgetotal defense 341-344 utah edgeAdjusted scoring defense,…[Read more]
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popbirch replied to the topic Cal -1 opening line in the forum Football 8 years, 2 months ago
I don’t think the defense got shredded. It wasn’t the best game they played. I think if you discount turnovers as luck then it’s a little easier to think we got shredded. But realistically turnovers are a skill that is enhanced or degraded by luck. There are teams that are good at generating tos and teams that aren’t. TOs are a part the game plan…[Read more]
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popbirch replied to the topic 2014 USC Game in the forum Football 8 years, 2 months ago
That game was actually pretty weird all around.
Remember the first quarter when we returned a fumble for touchdown and Orphey dropped the ball after getting hit just prior to the endzone but was never reviewed. The pass was labeled backwards so it was fumbled. Free 7 pts for us. The same thing happened later in the game but for USC but was…[Read more] -
popbirch's profile was updated 9 years, 2 months ago
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popbirch started the topic prediction for Oregon in the forum Football 9 years, 2 months ago
I have stats model I use to try and predict games. Its usually pretty accurate starting after game 6 when games are more linked but. For fresno it predicted a score of 46-17 which was pretty close.
Good news is for oregon it predicts a score of 34 for us and 33.6 for oregon. Should be a great game. Last year it predicted oregon in a blow out.…[Read more] -
popbirch became a registered member 9 years, 2 months ago