[John]

I am guessing that you need to remake that matrix since BYU throttled UCF and Utah lost another game.

[John]

Part of the problem is NIL. Utah invested heavily in Rising despite his propensity to be injured. He was a decent college QB with no real future in the NFL. With that money spent they had to try and ride him. I also think the PAC (except Oregon) was vastly overrated and the records of teams that left reflect that. Wilson is a freshman and he still tries to make what I call “high school” plays. In HS the best player on the field is normally the QB and he can do things at that level that when he tries to do them at the next level he fails. He will learn (hopefully). I use BYU’s Retzlaff as an example. Last year he threw the ball into coverage and this year he has learned what he can and cannot do. I would hope Wilson does that as well. Whittingham should have brought in a backup to Rising so Wilson could spend a year learning.

I hope the fan base learns a lesson as well. Don’t buy the hype before a season and stay off social media badmouthing everyone and every team in the Big XII.

[John]

Here is the problem with your analysis. Unfortunately, the west coast has very little interest in college sports these days. The professional teams suck up the money and the fanbase. Think what the hit would be if Salt Lake had a professional football team. The Jazz have poached the corporate tickets that used to go to Utah games.

Absent a long-term GOR from Oregon and Washington will be hard to get a good media deal. SMU adds nothing. The fan base in Dallas is either Texas or Texas A&M. Same thing in Houston where my daughter lives. She got her MBA at the University of Houston, and nobody cared about their sports teams.

The other major issue for the PAC is location. Unless you are a fan of the teams playing, most of America is in bed. Nothing can change that fact.

But all of college sport will have a reckoning down the road. First, the NIL deals have allowed the boosters back in the game and they will control things in the future. The example was Rashada who was promised $14M at Florida, the booster backed out, and Florida had to release him or he might have told someone that the coach promised him the money was good. He was originally at Miami and bolted to Florida for the cash.

Second, the transfers every year with the portal will have a long-term effect. Some kids are now playing at their 4th school.

Third, California is going to allow athletes to unionize. There is a similar bill introduced in Congress. Unions work on seniority and not merit.

I say enjoy the ride now because it may all fall apart within 10 years.

[John]

You know that somewhere about 50% of those fans will be wearing blue.  There is a big push by BYU fans to fill up the Huntsman Center.

[John]

Every team suffers injuries during the season. Look at BYU. Their top two RBs miss multiple games. Their offensive line has been shuffled this season. Hard to blame a coach when every other team goes through this during the year.

[John]

Wilson is playing like most freshman play. He has some talent but his size is a negative. He tries to make what I call “High school” plays. By that I mean that in HS the best player on the field is normally the QB. He can do things that he cannot do at the next level. The same from college to the NFL. He will have to learn what he cannot do. Good example is Retzlaff at BYU. Last year he was trying to make plays that he did at the JC level and turned the ball over. This year he appears to have learned what he can and cannot do and few TOs.

Whittingham should have gone to the portal and brought in another QB as insurance for an injury prone Rising. But I suspect that would have caused Wilson to look elsewhere. Put the coaching staff between a rock and a hard place.

[John]

I am a BYU fan and I am also being realisitic.  Oregon and Washington have made it clear they want to leave the PAC.  For that reason they will be very reluctant to give any extended GOR.  The problem the PAC has, and always has had, is location.  The majority of people are in bed by the time games start.  I lived in the east most of my life and I stayed up for BYU games but not for others.  Utah fans would stay up for Utah games.

The Big10 channel gets 55 cents per subscriber.  The PAC channel was getting 13 cents.  It is a money game.  The Big 10 added Maryland and Rutgers purely for money.  It got them on the basic tier of cable in the NYC and DC markets.  They added millions of dollars.

Twenty years from now streaming may be preferred to linear cable and satellite, but not yet.  The primary time slots on Saturday are already taken by the Big10, SEC, ACC and Big12.  Tough to compete for the casual fan and have him switch to a streaming channel against those on ESPN, Fox and the networks.

If any of the other schools bolt the conference would collapse. Adding SMU and SDSU does not move the money needle.  If I were any of the four corner schools (Utah, Arizona, ASU and Coloradao) I would certainly be exploring my options while I had some leverage.  If Oregon and Washington leave there is no leverage in moving.

I would welcome Utah to the Big12.  It would restore the rivalry game and give BYU a travel partner.  Both schools would be competitive in football but both will have to dramatically step it up in basketball.  There are not easy games in that conference.

Florida State is getting antsy in the ACC but they have the GOR until 2036.  They will probably start demanding a bigger slice of the media money.  I suspect Oregon and Washington will do the same in the PAC.  Gonzaga did it for basketball in the WCC.  

There are no easy options but watching some Utah fans dream of the Big 10 is simply that, dreaming.  The Utah market barely moves anything.

[John]

You think unions are good for college sports. Then a senior files a grievance if and underclassmen takes his starting spot.  Here is a better proposal then. Make all athletes be admitted to universities with the same grade requirements as other students. After all, isn’t college about getting an education to prepare you for the real world?

[John]

If Chandler flips after his mission it will be his decison and nobody elses.  As for Lohner, the rumor was that BYU hired his dad and that never happened.  I was told he got a taste of Coach K and was not impressed with being yelled at all the time.  My only comment is making unfounded rumors to appear as fact diminishes anyone that spread them.

[John]

Since all of these comments are pure speculation and have no real factual basis I would refrain from making comments like these.  We are dealing with 18 year old kids who could change their mind in a second and then reverse their decision a moment later. Should Chandler have second thoughts this will not help.

[Author]

Posts